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Month: January 2015

Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in this Parliament – UPDATE – ComRes phone poll has the Tories ahead for the first time since Sep 2011

Tories take the lead with Survation for the first time in this Parliament – UPDATE – ComRes phone poll has the Tories ahead for the first time since Sep 2011

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New @Survation online poll CON 31% (+1) LAB 30% (-3) UKIP 23% (+2) LD 7% (-3) GRE 3% (nc) SNP 5 (+2) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 26, 2015 The @Survation poll is the first Survation to put Con ahead in this parliament — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) January 26, 2015 This is the first in a series of monthly polling for the Mirror between now and the election. UKIP will be delighted to be in the 20s, albeit…

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Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead

Two Mondays ago the Populus and the Ashcroft had an 11 point gap over the LAB lead

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Revised @LordAshcroft poll Tweet. The first survey from him this year that doesn't have LAB behind. pic.twitter.com/Cu8pgNGtxL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 Today there’s 1 point gap Mondays have become the biggest polling day of the week witch at least three new surveys being reported. In the morning we get Populus online, the afternoon Lord Ashcroft and the normal YouGov in the evening. Today we’ve got a new London YouGov survey for the Evening Standard (see below). But…

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Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?

Interesting new leaders’ betting market – but where’s the value?

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General Election masks – just what you've always wanted! http://t.co/uMzNJJAAoh pic.twitter.com/UYc3n5e4vt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 Which of ED/Nick/Dave/Nige/Alex will do worst in their seats? Which leader'll do worst in seat at GE15 – AS/DC/EdM/NC/NF ? Betfair Sportsbook http://t.co/kjmGcRoaeb pic.twitter.com/jbsShjOBnp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2015 This clearly is a competition between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage and my inclination would be the latter. Thanet South looks as though it will be a tighter contest than Sheffield Hallam….

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With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground

With Scotland looking so difficult Labour’s big hope is the English battleground

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Mapping where the main action will be If the two main parties are level-pegging in England then that represents a swing of 5.7% on the last general election so, all the above should be potential LAB gains on current England only polling data. In almost all of the seats in the chart there has been Lord Ashcroft single constituency polling and the latest batch, just before Christmas, of those right at the top of the chart had more CON holds…

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The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

The 22 LAB targets/seats that political scientist, Rob Ford, says could be put at risk by the Green surge

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The 22 key seats where Man Uni's Rob Ford says the Greens could threaten LAB Observer http://t.co/3bZwdemtoy pic.twitter.com/Y9O2FrXZ4v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 Now Miliband might have to secure GREEN-RED tactical voting The leading political scientist, Rob Ford of Manchester University, has an analysis in the Observer this morning about the dangers of the current Green party surge to Labour’s GE15 chances. The 22 seats, some of them currently LAB held some are targets, are shown above and…

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What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

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The S Telegraph story on defection of UKIP MEP Amjad Bashir to CON http://t.co/LZEqNbimos pic.twitter.com/zk7B8nq5BC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 Website tells you how many #UKIP politicians have been suspended (32) and how long since most recent (14 mins) http://t.co/07pLgSluj7 — Pete Kennedy (@PeteKennedyGP) January 24, 2015 The MEP is one of quite a few who’ve moved on What makes this particularly striking is the timing so close to the general election, and the fact that Mr. Bashir…

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Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England only numbers

Well done to ICM and Ipsos-MORI for now providing England only numbers

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Wikipedia has new polling table – ENGLAND ONLY – where CON led by 11.5 at GE10. 3 pollsters now providing this data pic.twitter.com/8U68NH31jx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 As can be seen the picture is very mixed In December I met some pollsters and some of their clients at the BES launch event and suggested that what would be enormously helpful was a breakdown of the England only figures. Whether it was my suggestion or not I don’t…

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