Ashcroft National Poll, 13-15 Feb: CON 30%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 16, 2015

Now LAB go into lead for 1st time this year in this week's @LordAshcroft national phone poll pic.twitter.com/5i5Oh6Q6or

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015

@LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015

So what do we make of all of this?

After such a day of polling it is very hard to draw any conclusions. I must say that I was expecting Ashcroft to be in the same ball-park as ICM given they are both phone polls using very similar approaches with fieldwork over the same period.

As well as the LAB lead it is the gap with ICM with UKIP that is very striking.

I’m always reluctant to dismiss any poll as an outlier at such an early stage and we have not been able to study the ICM data yet. Ashcroft tables are already up.

Labour will take a lot of heart from the Ashcroft positive/negative numbers and there’s little doubt that the party brand is much stronger that the leader one.

In is interesting that UKIP/Farage are now at the bottom of that table. Maybe a pointer to anti-purple tactical voting?

So far at least no CON or LAB movement on the @SportingIndex http://t.co/E76CImc6ZI commons seats spread markets. pic.twitter.com/lQEd5kN5Sw

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

For latest polling and political betting news follow @MSmithsonPB