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Tonight one poll has a 1% LAB lead – the other has them level-pegging

February 28th, 2015

Westminster twlight

The battle is still on a knife-edge

The big message for the Tories as we go into the last two months and a bit is that they need to have emphatic leads across a range of pollsters to be certain of coming top on seats. Unlike previous elections when you could compute these things relatively easily today it is so much hard to state anything with any certainty.

The current assumption is that LAB will lose 20-30 seats in Scotland but very small movements could push that one way or the other. But this could be a mixed blessing for the blue team. A huge LAB collapse would make the SNP extraordinarily powerful and present huge problems for the the Tories – if indeed they remain in power.

This is the latest from Electoral Calculus which takes into account a huge move to the SNP yet still leaves LAB a lot closer to majority territory.