Archive for February, 2015

h1

All CON lead polls are from firms which’ve been tested in a GE unlike all but one of those with LAB leads

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Something to make the blue team happy – perhaps?

Make of this what you will and it might just be a huge coincidence but there appears to be a split between the pollsters that have been tested in a general election and those that haven’t.

The pollsters with asterisks next to their names in the chart were all regular pollsters in the run-up to GE2010. The ones without them weren’t.

Some of the firms classified as untested were around in 2010 but in a different form from their current operation. Thus Populus was the regular pollster for the Times five years ago but then it was a phone firm. Today’s Populus online polls are therefore treated as a newbie.

Same goes for TNS. Its new poll series is online which is totally different from its face to face operation which it still continues with for some its surveys.

I am treating ComRes as two separate polling series-the phone surveys which it now does for the Mail which was about pre 2010 and the online ComRes political polling which started after GE2010.

The Lord Ashcroft National Poll started about a year ago while Survation entered the political polling arena at the January 2011 Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election.

Looking at the chart the only established pollster recording a LAB lead is Ipsos-MORI which I now just call Ipsos. YouGov, Opinium, ComRes phone and ICM are the other four pollsters which have surveyed previous general elections.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

Marf on MPs with 2 jobs

Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

  • If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
  • Marf is speaking at an event tonight in London on freedom of speech and political cartoonists

    Changes in latest YouGov just published 2230
    CON – 33% (-2)
    LAB – 33% (-)
    UKIP – 15% (+1)
    LDEM – 8% (+2)
    GRN – 6% (-1)



    h1

    The MPs second job issue could have salience

    Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

    Cameron’s right but it’s a hard sell

    Ed Miliband, inevitably given what’s happened this week, made MPs outside interests his primary focus at PMQs. The Labour approach is to control second jobs and there is a vote tonight on the issue.

    The question this far out from an election is whether this might resonate as we saw with the expenses saga ahead of 2009. For the Tories to be seen to be blocking it might not be good electoral politics.

    On this I believe the Cameron approach is correct – MPs with outside interests do add to the overall quality of MPs and the house would be poorer if it was confined to career politicians. Judging by the polling I am in the minority.

    No doubt Labour will try to keep this going and I expect a commitment to ban MPs second jobs in the Labour manifesto.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




    h1

    There’s no clear picture in England where 532 of the 650 Westminster seats are located

    Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

    How many of the CON 2010 gains can be retained?

    At the end of last year I started monitoring England only data from the main pollsters partly in response to the very different political environment that’s developed in Scotland.

    All the phone pollsters are providing this in their regular datasets as well as Survation and Opinium. It would be great if YouGov and Populus could follow suit.

    For if, as expected, LAB suffers major losses to the SNP in Scotland then it will have to offset them elsewhere if it is to have any chance of coming out top on seats. It does have a handful of targets in Wales but the big battleground is England where it lost 90+ seats at GE2010.

    For the Tories the main objective is to hang on to as many of those 2010 gains and hope to pick up seats from elsewhere particularly Lib Dem ones in England.

    So England is crucial but so far at least the polling is not providing us with anything like a clear picture. The chart shows the range – from the blues being 6% behind in England to them being 4% ahead.

    The big figure to bear in mind is the 11.4% vote margin that the Tories had in 2010. They are sone way from replicating that performance.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




    h1

    Tonight’s cartoon from Marf (on Sir Malcolm of course) and the evening polling thread

    Tuesday, February 24th, 2015

    Two polls due this evening. Survation for the Mirror and the usual YouGov. They’ll be posted here as soon as they are out.

    Last month Survation had CON 31, LAB 30, LD 7, UKIP 23, GRN 3. Last YpouGov had CON & LAB tied.

    UPDATE LAB moves from 1% behind to 6% ahead in tonight’s Survation/Mirror poll


    Thee was a slightly smaller lead, check the third box on the chart, when sample was asked “The General Election is on 7 May 2015. Thinking specifically about your constituency and the parties and candidates likely to be in contention, how do you think you will vote on 7 May”

    Whatever a really good poll for LAB from one of the pollsters that last month had the Tories ahead

    UPDATE 2 CON 2% ahead in latest YouGov poll

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble



    h1

    Turnout’s going to be higher surely on May 7th – but how much higher?

    Tuesday, February 24th, 2015

    SPIN opens its GE15 turnout market with 70% the mid-point

    Sporting Index, which is sponsoring PB’s GE15 coverage, has put up a range of new spread markets including one on the turnout level. The opening spread is 69.7% – 70.3% making a mid-point of 70%.

    If you think that it is going to be higher then you bet on 70.3% and for every percentage point above that level you will receive your initial stake level. So if it was 73.3% and you had bet £50 then you’d win 50 times 3 = £150. If, however, it was 66.3% then you’d be out by a gap of 4 so you would lose four times £50 £200.

    With spread bets the more you are right the more you win. Alas it works the opposite if you’ve got it wrong

    On this market my sense at the moment is that the opening range is on the high side and that it will be sub-70%. There is a tendency to regard every forthcoming general election as “the most important ever” perhaps over-stating how many voters will actually bother to record their choice.

    We saw a big uplift in 2010 but I don’t expect a similar jump this time although I think it will be higher.

    One technical factor that might help a higher level is the cleansing of the electoral rolls that has been taking place.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




    h1

    Anybody thinking of betting on the Greens ought to listen first to this interview with the party leader

    Tuesday, February 24th, 2015



    h1

    Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting to look like a good proposition

    Tuesday, February 24th, 2015

    If the edge is coming off the purples Farage might fail

    I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet South where Nigel Farage is the party’s candidate. It’s really worth watching and gives a great flavour of the battle that is going on.

    The big news story from the programme was the expulsion from the party of a local UKIP councillor for some comments she made about black people. For me, however, the most revealing aspects was the high level of hostility that the UKIP/Farage campaign is attracting.

    If ever there was a contest that looked set for tactical voting it is this one. The question is which of Farage’s main opponents stands the beat chance? The Tory candidate is a former UKIP leader which might count against him.

    Looking at the polling the really remarkable feature is how close LAB was rated there in the earlier surveys which makes the 11/1 on the party a very attractive bet.

    I’m already on both the Tory candidate at 9/2 and 6/1 on LAB and have now taken some more on the red team at what seem to be great odds.

    The well funded Al Murray campaign might not attract voters to the Oxford-educated comedian but it stokes up the pot and has the potential to hurt Farage.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble