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Month: February 2015

Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lead up from 1 to 2%

Another phone pollster, ComRes, has UKIP declining. CON lead up from 1 to 2%

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The decline of UKIP from another pollster – ComRes phone poll for Mail CON 34 (+3) LAB 32 (+2) LIB 8 (=) UKIP 13 (-4) GRN 6 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll CON 36 LAB 32 LD 7 UKIP 14 GRN 9 A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 So the second phone poll of the day is out and, like Lord Ashcroft this afternoon, shows UKIP on the decline. But unlike Ashcroft…

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Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats

Something to scare those who’ve been betting heavily on UKIP and the Tories winning most seats

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Purples drop 5 while LAB edges close to overall majority The weekly Ashcroft phone poll continues to surprise us. From being, until last week, the only pollster not to have recorded a LAB lead in 2015 the latest, published at 4pm, has the very best figures for LAB in a phone poll since the Guardian’s ICM poll in mid-December. For UKIP the fall is in line with the trend if not the scale recorded by other pollsters. It does seem…

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The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus + Marf

The polling week opens with LAB and CON level-pegging with Populus + Marf

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After the Oscars and cash for access Marf gives her take pic.twitter.com/zQwWGcTx67 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 CON & LAB level-pegging in latest Populus Lab 32 (-), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (-), UKIP 15 (-2) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 The last time that Populus had CON & LAB level-pegging was Dec 21st 2014. Then it was 35% each – today's poll 32% for both — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 23, 2015 There are more LAB…

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Lib Dem sources say the debates unlikely to happen

Lib Dem sources say the debates unlikely to happen

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Leaders' Debates unlikely to happen say the Lib Dems http://t.co/45SV5Jz0Ch pic.twitter.com/mL0mFHr1T6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 22, 2015 Today reports emerged that Liberal Democrat sources say the televised leaders’ debates are unlikely to happen. The Lib Dems aren’t happy because Nick Clegg is only in two of the three debates, and is relegated to the likes of Plaid Cymru, who received one-sixtieth as many votes in 2010 as the Lib Dems did. A spokesman for Clegg said the Lib Dem leader’s…

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Who Will Deliver The First Budget After The May 2015 General Election?

Who Will Deliver The First Budget After The May 2015 General Election?

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Front page of tomorrow's @thesundaytimes, Is Ed Balls deep in trouble? pic.twitter.com/pKHv30FZir — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 21, 2015 The Sunday Times are reporting (££) that Ed Miliband has been urged to demote Ed Balls after the general election, amid simmering tensions in the Labour leadership over how to pay for a cut in university tuition fees. A shadow cabinet member said if Miliband becomes prime minister he should move the shadow chancellor and accused Balls of behaving with “contempt” towards…

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Updated: Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead – LAB retains its slender YouGov lead

Updated: Opinium has the Tories 2% ahead – LAB retains its slender YouGov lead

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Trend chart from Opinium which has just recorded its first ever CON lead in its Observer polling series pic.twitter.com/o4q9cS3RlB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Opinium shares Con 35%(+2), Lab 33%(-2), Lib Dems 6%(-2),UKIP 15%(+1),Green 7%(+1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 The poll represents a 4.2% CON to LAB swing in England Opinium ENGLAND only split CON 36 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 16 GRN 7 That compares with CON 11.4% lead in England at GE10 so a 4.1% CON to LAB…

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Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair

Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair

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CON to win most seats moves to an even stronger favourite on Betfair. Now a 62% chance pic.twitter.com/Qj3KJgc8ue — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 One poll with a CON lead in the past 17 pic.twitter.com/jmyBnGqEnS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Am I missing something here? Discuss On this exact day before GE2010 the money was going on a substantial CON majority in spite of the polls pic.twitter.com/Rt6VoJy5wc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Mike Smithson For…

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