Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

March 15th, 2015

As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph,

The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas.

The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis.

Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the election – would vote for the Conservative’s first Budget, which would be the first major test of this new right of centre alliance.

Until now Mr Cameron has only said that he will have a referendum – in which he would campaign to stay in a reformed EU – by the end of 2017

The risk for Farage and UKIP is that this sort of comment will put off Lab to UKIP voters in Labour held seats who were thinking of voting UKIP, Labour will be able to frame UKIP as being a vote for the Tories but it could reassure Con to UKIP switchers that voting UKIP won’t mean you got to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed.

It also has the the potential for Farage to appear to be more influential than he will be, as UKIP are on current estimates/forecasts on course for around four to six MPs, which is less than one per cent of the MPs in the next Parliament.

At the time of writing, midnight, it was 25/1 that there would a referendum in 2015 on our membership of the European Union. It is not a bet I’ll be taking up, as I just can’t see the numbers adding up for a Con and UKIP & DUP majority in May.