And on that there is no clear cut picture

There is a huge divide both between academic groups and others like Martin Baxter’s long-standing Electoral Calculus.

Frankly I find it hard to work this one out and I guess that whatever happens it will be a big surprise on the night.

My long term GE15 bet has been CON ahead on votes – LAB ahead on seats.

Reminder the PB pre May 7th gathering tomorrow. The Shooting Star from 7pm