A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

March 26th, 2015

Lord Ashcroft polls

This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat

We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter.

One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might be.

Team Farage is very keen to make gains from LAB as well as CON and this, I am told, is one of their biggest hopes. Surprisingly my source was more dismissive about UKIP’s chances in Heywood and Middleton where the purples came very close to Labour in last October’s by-election.

The revelations at the weekend and subsequent removal of the Tory candidate are not the main reason why I think it might be a good bet. The campaign is said to be going well.

Looking at the chart above UKIP did very well in 2010 and that’s usually a good indicator.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble