Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need itMarch 31st, 2015
CON up 2 in London YouGov poll, LAB & LD up 1 – UKIP & GRN both down pic.twitter.com/l7YNd4Qi18
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 31, 2015
The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there.
The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth,Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central. Obviously the party’s got hopes in two or three Lib Dem seats but these are nothing like as important as gains from CON.
In terms of being top party on seats each CON seat that LAB takes has the same impact as two gains from the LDs
As we’ve discussed here before FPTP elections are as much about where your vote is rather than how many. So if LAB is putting on a disproportionate increase of votes in one group of seats, London for instance, then that will be reflected in smaller elsewhere.
London has 73 constituencies out of a total English contingent of 533.
New ComRes Scottish phone poll points to 28 lost LAB seats
This poll is the first of its kind and is restricted to just the Scottish seats that Labour currently holds. The picture is what we’ve seen with other forms of polling and confirms the difficulties that exist north of the border. It’s estimated that this polling points to Labour losing 28 seats to the SNP.