Archive for April, 2015

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And before the big Question Time event here’s Marf

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

roaylbabytwo

Another online poll good for LAB



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If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with the highest rates of 2010 retention.

Quite what caused this I don’t know but I understand that there was some debate within the firm about whether to publish the poll at all.

Like all these things the important matter now is to see whether other pollsters also pick up the same trend which could have a dramatic impact on next Thursday’s result.

    It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Ipsos MORI has tapped into something here which is why I’m deferring judgement. The firm might have found the trend that will decide the election.

Meanwhile the Ipsos lead satisfaction rating see Clegg’s improve and Farage’s decline. The LD leader is no longer on the bottom slot.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

The knight of the long knives spread market from SPIN

Nigel Farage (Thanet South),
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam),
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood),
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr’ S.),
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn…),
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East),
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch’),
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S’wark),
Esther McVey (Wirral West),
George Galloway (Bradford West)

This SportingIndex market is a spread bet with the total determined by the following.

0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts

Only 1 score counts, based on the exact number who fail to win.
Min MU = 0, Max MU =100.

The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were.

I’d go for four. The Scottish ones look very vulnerable and chances are that one of the other seven won’t make it.

The Ipsos-MORI poll

  • There will be a thread once the firm has published the data which so far it has failed to do even though the numbers were put out five hours ago. We are on general election footing and even ICM is getting its numbers out within the hour.

    I’m tied up all afternoon.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON a 75% chance to win most seats

    Thursday, April 30th, 2015

    This is a bet on seat distribution not national vote shares

    One of the big things to remember as we get close is that the final seat totals are not governed by national vote share in some apparently pure manner but on the specific outcomes in 650 separate constituency battles fought under FPTP.

    Clearly this time the traditional ways of estimating seats from polls numbers have been smashed to smithereens by the political earthquake in Scotland. We should treat the politics north of the Tweed like we do with Northern Ireland which has operated in its own political eco-system for half a century.

    In England and Wales where the big LAB-CON battles will take place it is not inconceivable that the party that’s second on votes could come on top.

    So much is determined by local activity and strength of the party’s organisations.

    When I look at the Ashcroft seat polls where the outcome is tight I always check the voting numbers before turnout filtering comes in. Quite often, like in yesterday’s Ashcroft Swindon South poll the Tories were 2 points adrift before this calculation.

    As I’ve observed many times in the key marginals the party machines’ objectives are to ensure that even the most marginal voters vote.

    My reading of the most seats outcome is that CON leads but not by very much. We are 55-45

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    ComRes phone poll moves from 4% CON lead to level pegging

    Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

    This is the worst result for the Tories from the firm since the Daily Mail began its GE 2015 polling with ComRes nearly two months ago.

    The swing is almost the same as with the ComRes marginals polling published earlier.

    Still to come the usual YouGov.

    ComRes ends a few days when all the movement was to the Tories particularly with the phone polls. On Monday Ashcroft had a 6% CON lead while the Guardian had a 3% one.

    What this all says is that is enormously tight.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    How voting dynamics are different in the tight CON – LAB battlegrounds compared with the country as a whole

    Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

    One of the great things about tonight’s ComRes/ITV marginals poll is that it gave us data that we could compare with national polling to see different patterns.

    The battleground polling was in the 50 CON seats that are most vulnerable to LAB and as the chart shows the biggest group of change voters since GE10, the LD supporters, have a very different profile of current support compared with the applicable comparative national poll.

    Far fewer of the LDs are sticking with their allegiance – an indication of the battle that’s going on and how in these seats supporters of parties not in the top two are likely to get squeezed. As the chart illustrates both CON and LAB benefit.

    In the national poll 12% of 2010 LDs have moved to CON against 18% in the marginals. With LAB the figures move up from 26% to 38%. UKIP does better attracting LDs in the national poll than in the battleground while the Greens are the only segment to see an increase with the latter.

    All this doesn’t surprise me. Those living in the main battlegrounds experience a very different general election.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    ComRes: LAB take 3% lead in the 50 tightest CON-LAB marginals

    Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

    Comres

    Latest ComRes / ITV News Battleground poll has studied the fifty most marginal CON-held seats where LAB were second at the last election, and results show that LAB leads CON by three points across these seats. LAB currently stand at 40% in these key battleground seats, with CON on 37%.

    This represents a swing of 3.5 points from the CON to LAB, and will boost Ed Miliband and his “happy warriors” on the LAB campaign team as they enter the final days of canvassing the electorate. If these results were replicated on election day and if there were a uniform swing across all these constituencies, it would see LAB win 43 of them.

    This would be enough, just, for LAB to come out as top party even if they lost every single Scottish seat. That is assuming that LAB and CON perform equally in terms of net seats against UKIP/LDs

    The seats covered were: North Warwickshire, Thurrock, Hendon, Cardiff North, Sherwood, Stockton South, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Amber Valley, Waveney, Wolverhampton South West, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Carlisle, Stroud, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport, Dewsbury, Warrington South, Bedford, Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Brentford and Isleworth, Hove, Enfield North, Hastings and Rye, Ipswich, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, Gloucester, Northampton North, Bury North, Kingswood, Erewash, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, City of Chester, Croydon Central, Worcester, Keighley, Wirral West, Cannock Chase, Harrow East, Loughborough, Warwick and Leamington, South Swindon, Ealing Central and Acton, Pendle, Stevenage, Elmet and Rothwell, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    Both Farage and Clegg set to lose according to new Ashcroft polling

    Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

    Clegg trailing in Hallam even though a third of 2010 CON voters not supporting him

    Farage’s battle remains tight

    South Swindon – LAB CON target number 43