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The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

April 15th, 2015

Polling analysis: The latest 20 Ashcroft marginal surveys

For the past four years my view of GE15 has been that 2010 LD voters in the marginals were likely to be a main driving force. In 2010 they represented nearly one in four of all GB votes. Now the party had been polling only a fraction of that where would those votes move?

The biggest group of switchers are those saying they’ve gone to LAB. There are many types and it is a mistake to assume they are acting as one.

Some are simply returners to the red fold after being turned off by things like Iraq, some are converts and some are straightforward tactical voters who want to stop the Tories in their constituencies.

Fortunately for the blue team many of the LAB CON marginals are characterised as having fewer 2010 LD voters than the average. But as I’ve observed before in the marginals there are signs of a greater propensity to switch.

That’s confirmed by my analysis above of the 20 most recent Ashcroft CON-LAB battlegrounds polls. But there is a marked difference in the voting patterns between the seats which Lord Ashcroft has down as CON hold and those which were either tied or had LAB ahead.

Quite why this should be I can only guess. Maybe it is down to whether the Tory incumbent has been able to reach out to this segment of the electorate. I note that in Harlow there are more LD switchers to CON rather than LAB.

What is noticeable in some of the seats up to 26% of 2010 LDs have yet to make up their minds. They could be decisive.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble