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How many of these ten will fail to become MPs next week?

April 30th, 2015

The knight of the long knives spread market from SPIN

Nigel Farage (Thanet South),
Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam),
Ed Balls (Morley & Outwood),
Douglas Alexander (Paisley & Renfr’ S.),
Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn…),
Jim Murphy (Renfrewshire East),
Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye & Loch’),
Simon Hughes (Bermondsey & S’wark),
Esther McVey (Wirral West),
George Galloway (Bradford West)

This SportingIndex market is a spread bet with the total determined by the following.

0 fail to win (i.e all win their seats) = 0
1 fails to win = 5 pts
2 fail to win = 10 pts
3 fail to win = 15 pts
4 fail to win = 20 pts
5 fail to win = 25 pts
6 fail to win = 30 pts
7 fail to win = 40 pts
8 fail to win = 60 pts
9 fail to win = 80 pts
All 10 fail to win = 100 pts

Only 1 score counts, based on the exact number who fail to win.
Min MU = 0, Max MU =100.

The current spread is 27-32. So if you bought at 32 you’d make money provided that four on the list failed. Your exact winnings/losses would be based on how many failures there were.

I’d go for four. The Scottish ones look very vulnerable and chances are that one of the other seven won’t make it.

The Ipsos-MORI poll

  • There will be a thread once the firm has published the data which so far it has failed to do even though the numbers were put out five hours ago. We are on general election footing and even ICM is getting its numbers out within the hour.

    I’m tied up all afternoon.

    Mike Smithson

    For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble