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If other firms show LAB only retaining 63% of 2010 party voters, like with Ipsos, then the party’s in trouble

April 30th, 2015

The big feature from today’s dramatic Ipsos-MORI poll was that only 63% of 2010 LAB voters said they would still vote you party. This is totally out of line with other recent surveys which generally have had LAB with the highest rates of 2010 retention.

Quite what caused this I don’t know but I understand that there was some debate within the firm about whether to publish the poll at all.

Like all these things the important matter now is to see whether other pollsters also pick up the same trend which could have a dramatic impact on next Thursday’s result.

    It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that Ipsos MORI has tapped into something here which is why I’m deferring judgement. The firm might have found the trend that will decide the election.

Meanwhile the Ipsos lead satisfaction rating see Clegg’s improve and Farage’s decline. The LD leader is no longer on the bottom slot.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble