The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-LAB margin almost exactly right – should we be expecting the same of the latest poll?
The 2010 YouGov poll two days before GE10 got the LAB CON margin almost spot on. A good precedent for GE15? pic.twitter.com/t7h1G64m3a
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015
It’s back to level-pegging in latest poll
After a spate of 1% LAB or CON leads the latest YouGov Sun poll breaks the pattern – level pegging
CON 33
LAB 33
LD 10
UKIP 12
GRN 5— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2015
On Betfair CON most seats is an 82% chance
CON now 82.6% chance on Betfair exchange for most seats whilst YouGov has 4.6% swing to LAB in England/Wales pic.twitter.com/KrPil3iQX6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2015