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Apathy and the older voters might be the key for Out winning the referendum

May 31st, 2015

Issues Index

Not many people seem to view the EU as an issue – For Out it maybe that a low turnout referendum/differential turnout is the route to winning.

Looking at this month’s Ipsos Mori issues index above, as usual, the  EU isn’t in the top 10 issues, whilst I sympathise, with those that say that Immigration is a proxy for the  EU, when we look at the specific EU tracker below, by Ipsos Mori, the EU isn’t a priority as it has been in the past.

EU ISSUES

We saw with the police commissioner elections which were held in November 2012 turnout for single issue elections that aren’t a priority for voters can be very poor, as just over 15% of the electorate bothered to turnout and vote. I also expect those who cite the EU as an issue, are overwhelmingly on the Out side. Those advocating the referendum being held on a day with no other elections could cite the electoral commission who warn

that holding the [European] plebiscite on the same day as other elections would confuse voters and fail to allow enough time to debate the issues of the referendum. It also says there should be a period of at least six months between the referendum legislation being finalised and the date of the poll.

Coupled with the YouGov poll last week that had In winning overall, also had Out winning amongst the 40 year old plus groups and in winning with amongst the younger voters, history has shown that it is the older voters are the ones most likely to turnout, and that win elections, any complacency the In side has should evaporate.

Full details of the Ipsos Mori issues index can be found here and the best odds on the UK voting to leave the EU are 11/4.

TSE