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Month: May 2015

New research finds that the Tories took a third of the ethnic minority vote at GE2015

New research finds that the Tories took a third of the ethnic minority vote at GE2015

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The million minority voters that put Cameron into Number Ten One million ethnic minority votes helped put David Cameron into Downing Street on election night, according to a major new piece of research into attitudes among minority voters released today. While LAB remains ahead with minority voters on 52%, the research finds that the gap between the two main parties is shrinking dramatically. One third (33%) of ethnic minority voters supported the CON in 2015, a stronger result than ever…

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Marf celebrates gay marriage with a cartoon …

Marf celebrates gay marriage with a cartoon …

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@MichaelWhite Let he who has never leaked, lied about his involvement, sought reelection, & owned up only when rumbled cast the first stone. — PeatWorrier (@PeatWorrier) May 24, 2015 The Scottish precedent has been set. https://t.co/5qQTr986wK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 24, 2015

Labour leadership. TV Hustings will give the unknowns a chance to shine

Labour leadership. TV Hustings will give the unknowns a chance to shine

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Liz Kendall now clear 2nd favourite in Labour's leadership election pic.twitter.com/Yv716zxQM7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 24, 2015 Don Brind on how the battle might evolve I sat in a pub in Croydon a couple of days before polling day after an evening canvassing with Clive. We agreed that we had a brilliant Labour candidate in Sarah Jones – but what about Ed Miliband and the doubts we had both heard on the doorsteps? What did Clive think? “He can’t…

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The trade union member who could be the next Tory leader

The trade union member who could be the next Tory leader

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George Osborne praising Robert Halfon’s campaign for cheaper fuel. I’ve always thought the next leader would be someone associated with George Osborne, he declined to run in 2005 and he probably will not enter the next Tory leadership election, and prefers to be the éminence grise for another Tory leader. Sajid Javid seemed to be best placed in such a scenario, but perhaps, there is another, the man who was Osborne’s Parliamentary Private Secretary prior to the election, Robert Halfon, who must…

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STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same reason that CON won GE15 – the fear of the unknown

STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same reason that CON won GE15 – the fear of the unknown

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The Wiki list of EU referendum polling this year. http://t.co/5NVImL1UKO pic.twitter.com/MYjeXmLBHU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2015 On the face of it the numbers look good for STAY but are they? One of the things that the Tory victory on May 7th ensures is that during this parliament there will be an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. The question is which way will it go? A big campaigning lesson from the general election was how successfully…

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David Herdson: Elect in haste; repent at leisure

David Herdson: Elect in haste; repent at leisure

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Straight after defeat is not the best time to elect a new leader Michael Howard did the Conservatives two great favours as leader: the manner of his arrival and the manner of his departure. After the hapless two years under Duncan Smith, he (and David Davis, by standing aside), created a much-needed sense of unity and with it, the first signs of the determination and hunger necessary to regain office. Perhaps even more importantly, after he led his party to…

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LabourList “poll” shows Burnham well ahead with Kendall in strong 2nd place

LabourList “poll” shows Burnham well ahead with Kendall in strong 2nd place

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Keiran Pedley assesses the importance of a recent poll of LabourList readers that shows Andy Burnham the clear front-runner for the Labour leadership but with Liz Kendall in a stronger position than you might think. As the Labour Party leadership campaign gathers pace, we are gradually building a picture of what the contest will look like. Right now, it seems that there are three serious candidates that can win, with a maximum of four likely to take part. Andy Burnham…

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How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide

How Britain voted on May 7th – the Ipsos MORI guide

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And the BPC announces details of its GE15 inquiry After every general election Ipsos produces a table like the one above which become a key source of reference. Meanwhile the British Polling Council has announced details of its inquiry into what went wrong with the polls. Under the chairmanship of Prof. Patrick Sturgis, Director of the National Centre for Research Methods at the University of Southampton, the Inquiry is charged with the task of establishing the degree of inaccuracy in…

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