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Month: June 2015

Another reason to justify Zac’s status as favourite

Another reason to justify Zac’s status as favourite

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Another reason why @ZacGoldsmith is the favourite to be the next Mayor of London. http://t.co/S7hfYnxdwv pic.twitter.com/FTAqGBMejz — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 24, 2015 London calling for a third time for the architect of the Tory general election victory? At the general election in London, relatively speaking, Labour did better, the Tories did worse than the rest of the country, which might indicate a slight resistance to Crosby’s methods. However given his past success in London with the current mayor, this should…

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Two new betting markets

Two new betting markets

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Following on from Tissue Price’s piece yesterday, Ladbrokes have put a market on most seats without the SNP. As he said yesterday,  If, when the market goes up, you see a price bigger than this on any of these I’d tentatively suggest that it might be value. Labour 4/7 Green 7/2 Conservatives 6/1 Meanwhile Paddy Power have a market on who will get the second highest number of first preferences in the Labour leadership election. The head says Yvette Cooper, the heart says…

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Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

Liz Kendall, virtually unknown 8 weeks ago, in 2nd place in ORB LAB leadership poll

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Yvette should be the most disappointed This ORB poll for the Independent was conducted among all voters, not Labour members, Andy Burnham will be delighted with these figures, he can cite that the wider electorate perceive him as the candidate who will do the most to improve Labour’s chances at the next election, which should do his leadership ambitions no harm. The most interesting aspect of this poll is Liz Kendall’s numbers, she’s second to Burnham in this poll, both…

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Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

Holyrood 2016: who will come second?

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Making a tissue on a “Betting Without” market This is a betting thread without a market as yet. However, the best prices on any political market can usually be found within either the first six hours or the last six. So a little forethought as to what you’d be prepared to back – and at what price – can often be rewarded handsomely. Someone launching a “without the SNP” market on Holyrood is only going to be a matter of…

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Zac becomes the favourite to be the next London Mayor

Zac becomes the favourite to be the next London Mayor

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.@ZacGoldsmith's constituents back his attempt to become London Mayor. http://t.co/ixQdxdBGC7 pic.twitter.com/vFRuYCrYtE — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 Zac takes over as favourite to be elected London Mayor. 2/1 Zac 5/2 Jowell 10/3 Khan via @LadPolitics pic.twitter.com/keApCRF0IP — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 23, 2015 The other important news is that Goldsmith has persuaded, another contender, Nick de Bois, to be his campaign chairman, which is a sign that people see his nomination as inevitable. Taking the 1/2 that Paddy Power are offering…

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Henry G Manson says It’s advantage Sadiq in the London Labour contest

Henry G Manson says It’s advantage Sadiq in the London Labour contest

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You know when a candidate is losing when they start to blame the rules of the game. We don’t get more proof than in London right now. Len Duvall, a backer of Tessa Jowell’s bid to be Labour mayoral candidate, has publicly warned of the dangers of muslims and trade union members registering to vote in the Labour mayoral selection. He questioned whether this was in the ‘spirit’ of the contest. It may be shameless but Len knows what he is…

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Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

Antifrank compares 2015 to 1992

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We spend much time looking at the most recent developments.  But every now and then it is profitable to stand back and look at longer term trends.  That is most easily done by comparing elections which produced quite similar overall results and then looking at the detail.  The 1992 and the 2015 election results are sufficiently similar overall to make that a valuable exercise.  Except in Scotland. The overall result in 2015 was as follows: Con 330 Lab 232 SNP 56 Lib Dem 8 Plaid…

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Betting on the date of the EU referendum

Betting on the date of the EU referendum

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Over the weekend, stories emerged, which were downplayed by Number 10, that the EU referendum  was set for October 2016.  Then the Telegraph’s Chief Political Correspondent tweeted this afternoon. David Cameron could secure EU deal in time for October’s Tory party conference, Number 10 has indicated today. By me: http://t.co/519i3mJ491 — Christopher Hope (@christopherhope) June 22, 2015 It looks like July to October 2016 would be the optimal time to hold the referendum from Cameron’s point of view and William Hill’s 3/1…

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