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When will Dave depart?

August 5th, 2015

Dave hassled

Pulpstar looks at the Dave exit betting

Away from the current Labour leadership election and Mayoralty there may just be one or two political bargains on offer..

In his late March interview, David Cameron announced that he would not serve out a third term. Here I take a look at when he may leave and some associated odds:

2015: 50-1 Sky Bet (Cease to be PM)

I’d put the odds of the PM leaving this year extremely low.

The only ‘event’ which may hasten his departure is of the actuarial variety, and seeing as Dave is in decent nick the 50-1 doesn’t tempt. Perhaps 200-1 I’d think about it but meh.

2016: 14-1 William Hill (Cease to be Tory leader)

Not as crazy a bet as it may first appear is my thought on this. The best price on us staying IN in the EU ref is 1-4 which equates to a 78% probability (10-3 Out). 2016 is 1-3 favourite for the referendum, which implies the probability of an out vote in 2016 is ~ 17%.
Now although Dave has stated that he won’t resign in the event of an [out vote for the EU referendum]*3, it may well be a pre-ref gambit done so as not to give the OUT side more ammunition. Alex Salmond left as leader of the SNP after losing the Indy-ref, and though that was certainly more visceral to the soul of the Nationalist cause than the EU referendum is to the Conservatives, I don’t think it can be entirely discounted that he leaves in the event of an out vote. So 14-1 is a nice price all considered.

Alex also said he wouldn’t go in the event of a “No” too.

2017: 16-1 William Hill (Cease to be Tory leader)

Early handover period…

Perhaps in many ways an unlikely year for Dave to be leaving, but at 16-1 it is coverable. Speculation will be increasing as to the date of his departure following the EU ref, win or lose since there will be a decent sized void for political commentators with nothing coming up.

Tony Blair resigned in 2007, passing over to Gordon. This would be at the same point in the electoral cycle, and a pre-emptive move might wrong foot George Osborne’s opponents for the leadership. If you can get enough on all the options, perhaps cover stake with this one.

2018: 10-1 William Hill (Cease to be Tory leader)

2018 would give Dave’s successor ~ 2 years to the General Election and allow them to find their feet. Further on than 2017, and more time for ‘events’ to take place. Again 10-1 is a fair price without perhaps being the most outstanding of the lot. Autumn conference 2018 may be a decent time to quit for Dave though.

SkyBet have 2017 and 2018 at 9-4 and 2-1 respectively for Dave to cease being PM, which look like very mean prices.

2019: 7-2 Sky Bet (Cease to be PM)

2019 @ 7-2 looks like a great bet for Dave to cease to be PM. It would enable the new leader to take the 2020 GE would be within the ‘honeymoon’ period. With Labour still possibly in a shambles (Some might argue probably or definitely), a handover to George, Boris or AN Other may be a smart move in 2019.

2020: 7-1 Sky Bet (Cease to be PM)

This can win in one of two ways (Excluding the ever present actuarial method) – first the Conservative leadership contest takes place around Spring Conference, although the time frame from that to the GE is VERY short indeed. Second, Dave decides to take on the GE as PM and loses – it is possible that this happens despite Labour’s current seeing as we’re in majority Government, indeed a late 2018 handover could be a ‘double winner’ – but this is unlikely…

Pulpstar