Archive for September, 2015

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The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

Labour risk piling up votes where they don’t need it

Mr Corbyn’s plan has the major flaw that in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England Labour hold 94 of them, and 95 out of the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England and Wales. When you extend the analysis to include Scotland, a similar pattern emerges, in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in Great Britain Labour holds 92 of them, the SNP holds 3 and the Conservatives hold 5 of them.

Boosting turnout in these seats might replicate the mistake of May where Labour piled up votes in safe seats they already hold whilst the Conservatives boosted their votes in the marginals they hold, which will ultimately improve the advantage the Conservatives hold in vote efficiency. The following tweet sums it up.


To win in 2020 Labour needs to win the votes of people who voted Conservative and UKIP in 2015, until Mr Corbyn addresses that Labour won’t be taking power in 2020.

Thanks again to PBer Disraeli for producing the data behind this article.

TSE



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Concern about immigration moves to highest level ever recorded by Ipsos MORI

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

Meanwhile the economy moves to lowest since the 2008 banking crisis



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Pollsters need to wake up to the fact that Cameron has said that he won’t serve a third term

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

Laughter

The GE2020 choice won’t be DC or JC

Last night we saw the release of the monthly ComRes phone poll for the Daily Mail showing the CON lead down 5 to 9%. There was much focus on best PM figures showing Cameron 24% ahead of the new LAB leader.

One figure that stood out was that 26% of LAB voters in the survey chose Cameron rather than their new leader.

The only problem here is that as we all know Dave has made clear publicly that he is not going to continue the leadership beyond the general election. The choice will be between Corbyn if he survives till then and Cameron’s successor.

    As I’ve argued here before Cameron enjoys a polling premium attracting support that is greater than his party and we can’t assume that his successor will have the same appeal.

My guess is that a best PM rating where the options are Corbyn and Osborne would see a smaller lead for the former. It would also give us a better pointer to the general election.

In the 2005-2010 parliament when Tony Blair was still at Number 10 there was a lot of polling comparing other prospective LAB leaders, particularly Brown, with Cameron. That was clearly the right thing to do then and should be adopted now.

There’s another reason why the focus should be on measuring views of Corbyn against prospective Tory leaders which is that it deals with the incumbency bias inherent when you compare an Opposition Leader with the sitting PM.

So please let’s see some best PM comparisons between Corbyn and Osborne, Boris, May, Javid etc.

Mike Smithson





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First polling reaction to Corbyn speech – an Ipsos MORI focus group of LAB voters in Croydon

Tuesday, September 29th, 2015

JC1

I’ll add to this post if/when more info becomes available.



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And this afternoon Mr. Corbyn’s big speech..

Tuesday, September 29th, 2015

Jeremy Corbyn

Will he calm the doubters within his own party?



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We can’t assume that the next CON leader will enjoy the same personal premium that Cameron has had

Tuesday, September 29th, 2015

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ComRes Indy on Sunday/S Mirror poll Sept 19 2015

This could make GE2020 less of a certainty

The big known unknown of British politics is what is going to happen when David Cameron, as he’s said he will, steps down and won’t pursue a third term.

Quite what the timing will be we don’t know but it is highly likely that a new Tory leader will have emerged by the time of the next election and based on current betting the money is going on the Chancellor George Osborne.

What we know about Cameron, particularly from the regular Ipsos-MORI “like him like his party” polling is that he has been a net asset to the Conservative Party not a negative. Having him as leader has added to the overall appeal of the blue team. That contrasted sharply with Labour at the general election when having a Miliband as leader acted as a negative. Ed was less popular than his party while Dave was more popular.

    This, I would suggest, adds to the risk to the Conservatives of Cameron’s departure. The chances are that his successor will NOT enjoy the same personal premium.

The ComRes survey for the Indy on Sunday featured above highlights an issue in relation to George Osborne. Those net favorability numbers are not good for him. In fact he is only one point better than Jeremy Corbyn who is widely regarded as an electoral negative for Labour.

We do know that the appeal of a party leader is central in an election and why numbers like the ones above can be a better indicator of what will happen than the voting intention surveys.

It might, of course, be that if George gets the job then the aura of being Prime Minister will give him a considerable boost but it might not.

Polls numbers like the ComRes favourability ones will take on a greater significance as we get closer to the changeover.

Mike Smithson





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Dan Jarvis – the ex-army officer who is betting favourite to succeed Mr. Corbyn

Monday, September 28th, 2015

Dan Jarvis



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New Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, could be a tricky one for Osborne to deal with

Monday, September 28th, 2015

McDonnell

His first big speech gets positive responses

John McDonnell first came to prominence in 2007 when he sought to run against Gordon Brown for the party leadership. Unfortunately for him the Brown camp launched a massive effort to ensure that so many of the then PLP backed their man that there weren’t enough left over to get McDonnell on the ballot.

I’ve long been impressed with his communication skills and over the past few days we’ve seen something of his political strengths. He’s sharp and a lot of the success or failure of the Corbyn leadership rests on his shoulders.

His speech today showed that he’s not going to be as easy a foe for Osborne as many might have expected.

Mike Smithson