Why Sadiq could be quite hard for Zac or any other Tory to beat
I am deeply humbled that so many Londoners have put their faith in me today. Together, we can change London. pic.twitter.com/COQpcJrU55
— Sadiq Khan MP (@SadiqKhan) September 11, 2015
Just ask Lynton Crosby. Winning the London mayoralty is all about getting your own supporters out to vote in an an election that has struggled in the past to attract turnout levels of more than 40%.
In early August there was some interesting pulling from Survation which got very little attention. Its aim was to try to work out the different ethnic approaches to a Zac vs Sadiq contest.
First of all those sampled were asked whether they supported a generic Labour or Conservative candidate. Then they were shown videos of Zac and Sadiq. Then they were asked again assuming that these two were the main party candidates.
The differences between the two sets of responses were quite startling.
White Respondents
Looking at voting intention in the polling by ethnic group, before the video clips White British respondents split 42% to an unnamed Conservative candidate and 34% to an unnamed Labour candidate.
After the video clips, now naming Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith as Mayoral candidates for their parties head to head, both get a boost – 45% to Goldsmith, 40% to Khan. Khan gained 6% to Goldsmith’s 2%.
Black Respondents
Black respondents break 77% to an unnamed Labour candidate and 14% to an unnamed Conservative candidate. After the candidate names are introduced and post the video clips, this grouping breaks 73% Khan and 22% Goldsmith – Khan -4 and Goldsmith +8
Asian Respondents
Finally, and perhaps most significantly, Asian respondents initially break 56% to an unnamed Labour candidate and 29% to an unnamed Conservative candidate before the clips and candidate names are introduced.
Post the naming and video introductions though, this grouping breaks 71% Khan (+15) and 23% (-9) Goldsmith, showing a very sizable swing toward Khan amongst this group – the largest broad ethnic grouping in London, representing 18.5% of the mayoral electorate.
If the capital’s Asian communities have disproportionate turnout levels then Sadiq could be very difficult to beat.