Don’t read too much into primary polls at this point in the electoral cycle

September 27th, 2015

Out of the fifteen polls completed in September 2007, John McCain the eventual nominee didn’t lead in any of them polling as low as 10% and generally being in a distant third/fourth place behind the frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson who were polling in the 30s. In October 2007 McCain polled as low as 8%.

In early September 2011 the polling had eventual nominee Mitt Romney trailing Rick Perry consistently and even occasionally Herman Cain leading. While later on that year Romney started trailing Newt Gingrich and in early 2012 was trailing Rick Santorum.

The American Presidential race is going to be the major betting event on PB for the next year so when looking at any poll on who the nominees will be, the past performance of these polls needs to be remembered. We shouldn’t read too much into the current polls as the likes of Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Herman Cain will attest. Just because Trump is leading now it isn’t guaranteed that he will be the nominee.