Punters still don’t quite believe in Trump

The screen grab at the top is from Fox News and shows the line up of GOP contenders to this week’s TV debate. The ranking numbers are based on where they currently stand in the national polling.

Below that my chart shows the latest betting on the Betfair exchange. These are not odds set by the bookie but actual market prices of trades at 2pm this afternoon.

Although Trump is well ahead in the national polling he’s now second to Rubio on Betfair. The Florida senator, meanwhile, is third in line with the national polling.

The theory is that Trump might struggle organisationally at the Iowa caucuses. We’ll know three weeks today whether that perception is right.

20 days 2012 Iowa caucuses RCP polling average was
Gingrich 28.6
Romny 17
Paul 16.4
Perry 10
Bachman 9.2
Santorum 5.8 EVENTUAL WINNER

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2016

Mike Smithson

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