If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

If GE2015 had gone the way that today’s ICM sample remembered voting EdM would be PM

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Highlighting the challenge for pollsters on the evening before the GE2015 failure investigation reports

I will after all be able to attend tomorrow’s big event in London when the investigation into what went wrong with the GE2015 polling reveals its findings.

An indicator of the challenge facing the industry comes in the latest ICM phone poll for the Guardian. Although when all the weightings and adjustments are applied the Tories are 5% the stated past vote of those sampled paints a very different picture of the result compared with what actually happened.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

Mike Smithson



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