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If all goes to Dave’s plan British voters will be filling in one of these in just 144 days

January 27th, 2016

The online-phone EURef poll gap remains

A picture of the actual referendum ballot paper was featured on the BBC Daily Politics this morning. The pic above is a screen shot.

There’s something about seeing a ballot paper that makes an election very real and all the signs are that Cameron & Co are using their best endeavours to get it out of the way as soon as possible.

The longer the wait the more that Harold Macmillan’s famous “events” can intervene and the government’s strategy seems sensible.

Cameron only agreed to the referendum in the first place as a means of impeding the UKIP surge during the last parliament and it was only because he won a majority that this is now happening.

It is not something I’ve yet bet upon. The divide between the online polls and the phone ones is enormous and cannot easily be explained away. Last month ComRes commissioned two referendum polls at about the same time and as can be seen from the table got two very different outcomes. Online the split was 41% to 41%. The phone poll had it at 56% remain to 35% leave.

My view remains. Whatever Dave recommends will win as has been seen in poll after poll.

Mike Smithson