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Corbyn drops to his lowest level yet amongst those who voted LAB last May

January 29th, 2016

More numbers, no doubt, for Corbynistas to remain in denial about

Every month for more than 40 years the pollster Ipsos MORI has carried out leader ratings. The question format has been the same simply asking people whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the leaders.

As I’ve argued and shown these ratings have proved to be a better indicator of General Election outcomes than standard voting intentions. If we’d have followed these at GE1992 and GE2015 rather than the party vote shares we would have got both elections right.

So to me the most significant feature of the latest Ipsos-MORI phone poll was not the Tories extending their lead but how Corbyn and Cameron were being rated. The particular numbers that I highlight are how those who voted for the main parties at the last general election now rate the leader. My focus is on those proportion who give a positive rating.

The trend is in the chart. Now fewer that half of those who voted for Miliband’s LAB last May are ready to give a positive rating to Corbyn and the trend is moving away from him.

Clearly we are some way away from the general election and we don’t know yet who the Tory leader will be. But even so the reluctance of 2015 LAB voters to be positive about their man doesn’t bode well for the party.

It is not party members who matter, as the Corbynistas assert, but past Labour voters.

Mike Smithson