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UPDATED With Cameron’s EU talks reaching crucial stage REMAIN’s Ipsos MORI lead drops 7%

January 29th, 2016

The gap down but still larger than last October

Given the vast bulk of EURef polling has been from online surveys it’s great to see that Ipsos-MORI appears to now being doing a question for its monthly political monitor which, of course, is carried out by phone.

As can be seen in the table and has been discussed endlessly the phone pollsters have been recording very different pictures of public opinion on the issue compared with internet surveys which can be carried out at a fraction of the cost.

The pollster asked two EURef question – one its long-term tracker the other with the actual referendum question. Both showed decreases and to the latter the margin is now 19% to REMAIN.

Even so Ipsos still has a double digit REMAIN lead but it is nothing like the gap of previous months. In the summer it was at 27%.

My guess is that Cameron won’t be too upset by this development which could in fact help them. I was told by a senior diplomat from an EU country during the week that the tighter the referendum looks from a polling perspective the stronger the PM’s negotiating position.

All UK phone pollsters now call mobile numbers as well as landlines in their political surveys.

Mike Smithson