— TSE (@TSEofPB) January 31, 2016
If the referendum comes down to a popular leader with economic credibility versus an unpopular leader without any economic credibility then there will only be one winner, again.
In the most recent electoral events in the United Kingdom, the Scottish Independence referendum and the 2015 general election, the side that won was the side that the voters viewed as the one that was the safest/best option for the economy. You can see something similar happening in the EU referendum, which does not bode well for Leave as I believe voters wont go for the option that makes them worse off or is perceived to be riskier, economically.
The ComRes poll showed “44% British adults say they think the state of the British economy would be better off with Britain remaining a member of the EU, compared to 23% who feel the state of the economy would be better off if Britain left the EU.”Â This is the type of polling advantage the Tories enjoyed over Labour in the run up to the last election.
With the opinion polling on the EU referendum showing a mixed picture, leader ratings of the de facto leaders, which Cameron and Farage will surely be, even if they aren’t the de jure leaders of the Remain and Leave campaigns, might be a better predictor of the outcome of the referendum, just like they have been at general elections.
The tweet at the top of this thread shows Cameron as the best rated GB wide party leader, whilst Farage is the joint worst rated party leader, on a par with Corbyn, which should alarm UKIP and Leave. Farage appears to be on the wane, especially after his epic whine after the Oldham West & Royton by election and the wheels coming off his assassination story, this polling isn’t surprising.
Leave should make more use of someone like Lord Lawson of Blaby, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, under Margaret Thatcher, to help boost their economic credibility. As a seasoned political campaigner once observed about winning votes and elections, it’s the economy, stupid.