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Month: January 2016

The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

The pollsters got the big picture at GE2015 absolutely right provided you ignore the rubbish voting intention numbers

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The polling inquiry should have considered alternatives to standard voting intentions While everybody else has been obsessing about voting intention numbers I’ve been looking at how the pollsters did with their lead rating last May and the big picture is in the chart above. This shows the percentage in each of the samples that gave positive ratings to Mr. Cameron and Mr. Miliband. In the final few days five pollsters asked leader rating questions and the results are featured above….

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The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

The very idea of President Sanders – seriously?

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Can he beat Clinton and if so, the Republican? In contrast to all the interest that the Republicans have delivered in their pre-primary contest, the Democrats’ affair has been a low-key, staid affair so far: two candidates plus an also-ran, of which one has been an overwhelming favourite for a long time, backed with huge financial and political muscle; the other, a 74-year-old self-described socialist who has never even run for election as a Democrat before. It ought to be…

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Local By-Election Results : January 21st 2016

Local By-Election Results : January 21st 2016

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Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire Result: Conservative 881 (53% +9%), Liberal Democrat 333 (20% +6%), Labour 286 (17% -2%), UKIP 176 (11% -12%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 548 (33%) on a swing of 1.5% from Liberal Democrat to Conservative Thatto Heath (Lab defence) on St. Helens Result: Labour 964 (71% -4%), UKIP 182 (13%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 147 (11% +4%), Green Party 62 (5% -3%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 782 (58%) on a…

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PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for the next leadership contest

PB’s “Labour insider”, Henry G Manson, marks your card for the next leadership contest

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Jarvis & Nandy are now the value choices for next leader Last Saturday at the annual Fabian Conference the headline speaker was Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. However one of the more interesting debates at the event was Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer speaking alongside each other. There’s a high chance that one of those three will be the next leader of the Labour Party and the Fabians knew it. I first picked out Lisa Nandy in September 2010 in…

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PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Mike Smithson

PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Mike Smithson

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On this week’s podcast Keiran discusses the initial BPC Polling Inquiry findings with Mike Smithson. Keiran explains some of the findings and why voting intention polls are not the same as public opinion polls. Mike argues that the polls being wrong shaped the General Election result and we discuss where polling goes from here and whether polling could face another crisis over the E.U. referendum result. Keiran and Mike also discuss the U.S. presidential race. Keiran argues we are underestimating…

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Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)

Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)

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Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour 15 (Conservative majority of 15) Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 995 (44%), United Kingdom Independence Party 524 (23%), Labour 437 (19%), Liberal Democrats 321 (14%) Candidates duly nominated: David Hey (UKIP), Shailain Shah (Lib Dem), Jane West (Con), Seamus Williams (Lab) “In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire, hurricanes hardly ever happen!” to quote the phrase that Professor Higgins used…

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The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

The doubts over Cruz’s eligibility will hurt him in the eyes of primary voters irrespective of their validity

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Salon Trump now Betfair favourite to win Iowa An ongoing issue for Cruz has been whether the fact that he was Canadian born makes him ineligible to serve as President. The constitution lays down that the office holder has to be a “natural born” American. There are many legal views on this, read the article linked to above, and it would probably end up in the Supreme Court. The question at this stage just before the primaries start is not…

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New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

New Pew Research finds that none of the WH2016 contenders are inspiring voters and negative reactions are high

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Pew Research How the race has become totally polarised The above chart has just been published by the excellent Pew Research and is in many ways a US equivalent to the “good PM” ratings that we see in the UK. I think these numbers are worrying for both front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Hillary doesn’t have the positive levels that her team would be hoping for while for Trump it us the negative findings that are the most…

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