Archive for March, 2016

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Tonight’s local by-elections saw

Thursday, March 31st, 2016

Moriah (Lab defence) on Caerphilly
Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 698, 543 (54%)
Plaid Cymru 420 (30%)
Independent 363 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated:Peter Bailie (Ind), Mervyn Diggle (Ind), Nigel Godfrey (Con), Ian Gorman (UKIP), David Harse (Lab)

Embasy with Eastby (Con defence) on Craven
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 20, Independents 6, Labour 2, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 10)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 598 (57%), Labour 249 (22%), Green 221 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated: Trevor Kent (Con), Brian Shuttleworth (Ind)

Maryfield (SNP defence) on City of Dundee
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 16, Labour 10, Conservative 1, Independent 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Scottish National Party majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 559, 1,187 (51%)
Labour 629, 622(36%)
Conservatives 249 (7%)
Liberal Democrats 126 (4%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist 62 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: James Clancy (Con), Alan Cowan (Lab), Jacob Ellis (Green), Stuart Fairwater (Trade Unionist and Socialist), Christopher McIntyre (Lib Dem), Brian McLeod (Ind), Lynne Short (SNP), Calum Walker (UKIP)

Clacton East (Tendring First defence) on Essex
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Green Party 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Tendring First 1,528 (34%), Conservative 1,194 (27%), United Kingdom Independence Party 1,106 (25%), Labour 477 (11%), Liberal Democrat 77 (2%), Green Party 70 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Bird (Lab), Richard Bleach (Con), Colin Sargeant (Holland on Sea Residents), Ben Smith (UKIP), Rain Weltham-Cobb (Lib Dem)

Richmond Central (Lib Dem defence) on Richmondshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 673, 610 (49%)
Conservatives 411, 409 (30%)
Green Party 298 (22%)
Candidates duly nominated: Nathalie Carter (Con), Lorraine Hodgson (Richmondshire Independents), Anna Jackson (Green), Phillip Knowles (Lib Dem)



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Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Trump can be stopped

Thursday, March 31st, 2016

Wisconsin   Google Maps

The 42 “winner takes all” delegates look set to be crucial

One thing that is becoming increasingly clear in the battle for the Republican nomination is that Donald Trump will need to have enough delegates on the first round by the time he gets to the GOP convention in Cleveland in July.

If he fails to have reached the magic threshold 1,237 then all the media talk is of efforts being made at the convention to stop him being the party’s nominee.

In this context the winner takes all primaries are absolutely central and the next one is on Tuesday in Wisconsin when 42 delegates are at stake.

The polling there has become very very tight with the current RCP average showing a small lead to Cruz.

One indicator how the race is going is the rush of money on Senate Speaker and 2012 VP nominee, Paul Ryan, for the nomination on Betfair. He has what could be a crucial role at the convention and is being talked up as a potential nominee although he has not entered any of the primaries.

Back in November the leading US pollster, Stan Greenberg, tipped Ryan as a possible nominee in one of the PB/Polling Matters podcasts if it went to the convention. Ryan’s odds then were 150/1 and longer.

Check out the latest PB/PM TV Show by clicking here

Mike Smithson





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This week’s PB/Polling Matters TV show looks at the Sanders threat to Hillary Clinton and the current state of Labour

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016

Another top political discussion on the issues of the moment

After all the focus on the GOP race and BREXIT this week’s show examines the potential threat to the Clinton campaign by the 74 year old, Bernie Sanders and the state of Labour six months after Corbyn became leader.

Keiran Pedley is joined in the studio by Stephen Bush of the News Statesman and YouGov’s international director, Marcus Roberts – who previously worked with Labour.

The link for the audio podcast of this week’s show is here.

Mike Smithson





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The woman Farage sacked is 6/4 favourite to succeed him as UKIP leader

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016

Former UKIP star Suzanne Evans discusses her suspension from   YouTube
ukip

A big political story before the Easter weekend was the suspension for six months of leading UKIP figure, Suzanne Evans, who for a few days last May was acting leader of the party.

She stood in after Farage carried out his promised resignation on the Friday after the general election only to return as leader the following week.

Evans, a former BBC journalist and CON councillor, had become one of the most effective communicators for her party and had hopes of being elected to the Greater London Assembly on Msy 5th. Her six month suspension which she sought to contest in the courts means that she won’t be on the UKIP list for the election.

I don’t claim to have any insight into UKIP’s internal politics and have no view of the betting odds. My one observation is that not having a communicators as effective as Evans in a leading position is a big mistake. She is someone with the ability to reach a wider audience than most in the UKIP leadership.

Mike Smithson





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Trying to work out who will turn out in the referendum of June 23rd

Wednesday, March 30th, 2016

Datawrapper    QQeoI    Publish

New study tries to explain why phone and online polls are giving different EUref results

As we get closer to the referendum there’s a lot of effort going on to try look at the polling more closely so we don’t end with another GE2015.

The results of a Populus/Number Cruncher Politics study on the difference between the online and phone surveys was looked at on Newsnight last night and I’m hoping it will be possible to link to the actual document during the day. One of the conclusions relates to turnout and its link to demographics which is why I’ve featured the Ipsos-MORI GE2015 data in the chart above.

The notion that Leave voters are more determined to vote in the referendum, based on what Leavers have been telling pollsters, has been little questioned. But this conclusion is heavily dependent on sampling people representatively in terms of relative political interest. Turnout self reporting is known to be misleading this far out. If instead we consider high and low-turnout demographics, older people are more likely to vote to Leave, but more affluent people are more likely to vote to Remain than less affluent people. In fact if we compare General Election turnout between constituencies, we find that turnout is not higher in more Eurosceptic areas – in fact it is slightly lower.

Another feature identified in the report is that those who respond to phone polls are more likely to give socially liberal responses than those online. Maybe that is the interviewer effect. Thus 40% of the phone sample felt that racial equality had not gone far enough compared with 24.9% of the online group. This compares to 31.9% in the huge BES face to face study.

One suggestion the authors make is that polls might be weighted by social attitude with, presumably, the BES being the norm.

Mike Smithson





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The referendum polling is getting much tighter. Gone are the double digit phone poll leads

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

EU Ref polling   Google Sheets

After a months of very large REMAIN leads in the phone polls we’ve now had three in the past week which are all showing that the race is getting much tighter. Ipsos and ComRes have 8% REMAIN leads while Survation has it at 11% – all very similar.

At the same time there hasn’t been much movement in the online polls so we are, perhaps, seeing a level on convergence as we get closer to the day – on 12 weeks away.

To my mind this race is becoming much more open and I’ve started laying REMAIN on Betfair. I think the price is tight.

One issue that’s come up this afternoon is in this Tweet exchange.

Mike Smithson





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New Ipsos Referendum phone poll has the REMAIN lead down to 8%

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

The pollster has changed its methodology which I will write about later



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Cameron, surely, is more vulnerable at the moment than Corbyn

Tuesday, March 29th, 2016

corbyn cameron   Google Search

Betting on which leader will go first

In the picture above are the latest William Hill odds on which of Cameron or Corbyn will stand down first. As can be seen the LAB leader is 4/6 to go first which I think is wrong.

Firstly the rules of the Conservative party make it far easier for a challenge to be mounted and, indeed, recent history has seen both Mrs Thatcher and Iain Duncan Smith being voted out by the party’s MPs. There’s no such simple mechanism with the red team.

Secondly the outcome of the main UK political event in 2016, the referendum on June 23rd, could lead to all sorts of consequences within the Conservative party which are hard to predict. So many within the party have invested large part of their political careers on the country being able to decide on Britain’s EU membership that it going the wrong way for them is hardly going to close the issue down. A LEAVE vote or narrow REMAIN victory could spark off an attack on Cameron’s position and it is far from clear that he would survive it.

We saw in Scotland after the September 2014 IndyRef how a 10% defeat for YES led to changing the whole of politics north of the Tweed

It is true that within Labour that Corbyn’s leadership victory on September 12th 2015 has led to a huge amount of turmoil reinforced by his lacklustre Commons performances and his total failure to capitalise on the Tory EU divide. Other leading Labour figures would be having a field day

Fortunately for Corbyn party rules makes it much harder for MPs to mount a coup.

The May 5th locals, Scottish, Welsh and London elections could change that but UK politics at the moment is totally overshadowed by the EU decision. The pressure on Labour MPs not to rock the boat in the seven weeks between the May elections and the referendum will be strong.

Mike Smithson