Wisconsin next Tuesday looks like the last primary where Trump can be stopped

March 31st, 2016

Wisconsin   Google Maps

The 42 “winner takes all” delegates look set to be crucial

One thing that is becoming increasingly clear in the battle for the Republican nomination is that Donald Trump will need to have enough delegates on the first round by the time he gets to the GOP convention in Cleveland in July.

If he fails to have reached the magic threshold 1,237 then all the media talk is of efforts being made at the convention to stop him being the party’s nominee.

In this context the winner takes all primaries are absolutely central and the next one is on Tuesday in Wisconsin when 42 delegates are at stake.

The polling there has become very very tight with the current RCP average showing a small lead to Cruz.

One indicator how the race is going is the rush of money on Senate Speaker and 2012 VP nominee, Paul Ryan, for the nomination on Betfair. He has what could be a crucial role at the convention and is being talked up as a potential nominee although he has not entered any of the primaries.

Back in November the leading US pollster, Stan Greenberg, tipped Ryan as a possible nominee in one of the PB/Polling Matters podcasts if it went to the convention. Ryan’s odds then were 150/1 and longer.

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Mike Smithson