The IN lead drops by 4% in the first published poll since the Obama intervention
How the @Telegraph is portraying both sides in the BRXIT battlehttps://t.co/XOqClIoPRH pic.twitter.com/MgwihNU4K8
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2016
UPDATED referendum polling table showing new ORB survey with gap narrowing pic.twitter.com/3u9aBW7eXs
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2016
The OUT team will be absolutely delighted with today’s ORB phone poll in the Telegraph which sees last week’s 9% IN lead drop to just five. Whether this is the start of a trend or no we don’t know. In March ORB produced numbers which were out of line with other surveys.
Writing in the paper Lynton Crosby observes:-
“I wouldn’t be hanging out the victory bunting just yet. The marathon has barely begun.
Some will ask how can Leave show a marginal improvement when so many commentators said the Remain campaign had a great week, boosted by the American president’s visit and his rallying cry for Remain. However, the effect of the president’s visit may not yet be felt in the numbers as sometimes it take a while for factors to wash through. Also, people may not take much notice of what an outsider has to say.
The latest ORB poll for The Telegraph shows that not much has changed over the past week, which is why consolidation is of such importance at this stage in the race..”
In the next couple of days we will see the latest ICM online poll as well as the start of a new phone polling series sponsored by spread bookies IGIndex.
Given the hopes that IN had with the Obama move this, for the moment, will take the wind out of their sails.