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Opinum has EURef outcome for maximum chaos: England & Wales vote OUT but Scotland means it’s overall for IN

April 30th, 2016

Opinium #EURef poll national splits

ENGLAND 41% to 43% to OUT
WALES 35% to 42% to OUT
SCOTLAND 51% to 34% IN
OVERALL 42% to 41% to IN

Tonight’s Opinium poll has a projected outcome which, if it happened, would create the most massive post-June 23rd eruptions – a narrow IN win but with England and Wales voting OUT. The national region splits are above.

How wonderful for political anoraks to have such an outcome. We must remember Northern Ireland as well which is not normally included in national polling. What we’ve seen from there is that it would be like Scotland.

Also in the Opinium poll a big move to the Tories on voting intention – not a good pointer for the red team on Thursday.

CON: 38% (+5)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 15% (-2)
LDEM: 5% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

Meanwhile this is worth looking at as Zac goes for the Indian vote.

Mike Smithson