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ICM Phone poll sees Leave 4% ahead. A fortnight ago Remain was ahead by 10%

May 31st, 2016

Both the ICM phone and online polls show Leave winning by 4%. The phone poll sees a 7% swing from Remain to Leave, the online poll sees no swing.

Like last night’s ORB phone poll, there’s been a significant shift to Leave, this time a 7% swing from Remain to Leave. What makes this poll very interesting is that ICM online poll has seen no movement whatsoever.

Whether this is a genuine shift, we need to see more polling, there’s a danger of repeating the mistake of the last general election and assume today is the day the polls turned. In the past there’s been some outliers produced when polls have been conducted during the Bank Holiday period, but nothing on a scale of a 7% swing.

For David Cameron and the Remain campaign, this is squeaky bum time. Whilst correlation doesn’t imply causation, both phone polls have seen major shifts to Leave after Vote Leave decided to focus heavily on immigration. I’d expect Remain to focus heavily on their strongest asset, the economy.

For punters, Martin Boon of ICM says the ‘polling also suggested a healthy turnout in the referendum. Asked how likely they were to vote on 23 June, more than 60% of respondents on both methods gave a score of 10 out of 10, which he said pointed to a turnout of 60-62%.’

You can access the ICM data tables here.

Unsurprisingly this has seen movement towards Leave on Betfair.

TSE