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ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain

June 13th, 2016

The latest ICM polls for The Guardian are out.

Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls.

Leave now enjoys a 53%-47% advantage once “don’t knows” are excluded, according to the research conducted over the weekend compared with a 52%-48% split reported by ICM a fortnight ago.

The figures will make grim reading for David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour party. They follow a fortnight in which immigration became the dominant issue in the European campaign with the publication of official figures recording that net migration had risen to a near-record 333,000 in the year’s second quarter.

Prof John Curtice of Strathclyde University, who analyses all the available referendum polling data on his website whattheukthinks.org, noted that, after the new ICM data, the running average “poll of polls” would stand at 52% for leave and 48% for remain, the first time leave has been in such a strong position.

The only crumb of comfort I can find for Remain in this polling is that ‘Voters in professional “AB” grade occupations are, by 57% to 38%, strongly in favour of staying in Europe, whereas skilled manual workers – the so-called C2s – are plumping for leave by an emphatic 67% to 29%.’ Historically the ABs haves tended to turnout more than C2s.

This week should see at least two more phone polls, Ipsos Mori on Wednesday and Survation on Thursday, and probably ORB in The Telegraph tonight, if these polls showing Leave leads, or significantly reduced Remain leads, then Brexit is starting to look inevitable, as I’m not sure what Remain has left in its arsenal to counter the Leave leads and momentum. As the tweet below implies panic and poor canvassing returns for Remain.

In less than eleven days time we might see The UK voting to end her membership of the EU, and the end of David Cameron’s Premiership, interesting times ahead.

TSE