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… And the winners of the EUref polling race look set to be TNS and Opinium

June 24th, 2016

Once the final polls came our I wrote that if LEAVE did it it would be as big a polling disaster as GE2015. In fact then none of the final polls were in range. At least this time two of them, TNS and Opinium, got very close and were showing LEAVE leads.

The latter is very much on a roll. It was the most accurate online poll at GE2015 and last month got the London Mayoral race spot on.

My German TV interview on Tuesday

From a betting perspective this was one of my most profitable nights ever. I’d been very mindful of the recent comments by my friend, the Tory psephologist Lord Robert Hayward, who had suggested that he thought that LEAVE was being understated in the polls.

As soon as Newcastle and Sunderland came out I got on LEAVE which offered very good odd for several hours. I tipped it on Twitter when it was a 39% chance.

I hope other PBers had a good night.

Mike Smithson