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After the most dramatic post-war week in British politics the first electoral tests: Tonight’s local by-elections

June 30th, 2016

St. Michael’s (Con defence) on Bexley
Result of council at last election (2014): Conservatives 45, Labour 15, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,352, 1,314, 1,140 (35%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,280 (33%)
Labour 857, 769, 720 (22%)
British National Party 407 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Keith Forster (UKIP), Michael Jones (BNP), Sam Marchant (Lab), Derek Moran (Green), Simone Reynolds (Lib Dem), Ray Sams (Con)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 47,603 (37%) LEAVE 80,886 (63%) on a turnout of 75%

High Town (Lab defence) on Luton
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 35, Liberal Democrats 8, Conservatives 5 (Labour overall majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,442, 1,039 (53%)
Conservatives 791, 748 (29%)
Green Party 479, 329 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated: Lyn Bliss (Green), John French (Ind), Grace Froggart (UKIP), Sue Garrett (Con), Clive Mead (Lib Dem), Maahwish Mirza (Lab)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 36,708 (43%) LEAVE 47,773 (57%) on a turnout of 66%

Leatherhead North (Con defence) on Mole Valley
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 23, Liberal Democrats 12, Independents 6 (Conservative majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,064 (34%), Liberal Democrat 915 (29%), United Kingdom Independence Party 571 (18%), Labour 455 (15%), Green Party 122 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Simon Chambers (UKIP), Joe Crome (Lib Dem), Vicki Elcoate (Green), Marc Green (Lab), Tracey Keeley (Con)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,088 (53%) LEAVE 25,708 (47%) on a turnout of 82%

Rhoose (Ind defence) on Vale of Glamorgan
Result of council last election (2012): Labour 22, Conservatives 11, Plaid Cymru 6, Independents 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 810, 727 (49%)
Independent 882 (28%)
Labour 713 (23%)
Candidates duly nominated: Rachael Banner (Ind), James Fyfe (Pirate), Gordon Kemp (Con), Graham Loveluck-Edwards (Lab), Robin Lynn (Lib Dem), Ian Perry (Plaid) Adam Riley (Ind)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 36,681 (51%) LEAVE 35,628 (49%) on a turnout of 76%

Newington (UKIP defence) on Thanet to be held on July 1st 2016
Result of council at last election (2015): United Kingdom Independence Party 33, Conservatives 18, Labour 4, Independent 1 (UKIP majority of 10)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
United Kingdom Independence Party 884, 845(44%)
Labour 728, 713 (36%)
Conservatives 390, 363 (20%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Brown (Lib Dem), Adam Dark (Con), David Green (Lab), Roy Potts (UKIP),
Referendum Result: REMAIN 26,065 (36%) LEAVE 46,037 (64%) on a turnout of 73%

Anyone who tells you that they know how these by-elections will go is telling you a bare faced lie. This time last week REMAIN were rated as a 75% chance on the betting markets, Cameron was going to stand down as PM after the local elections of 2017, Corbyn would be Labour leader until at least 2019 and the cable rate (£ vs $) was approaching a recent high. Therefore I am not even going to attempt to second guess how these by-elections will go (nor indeed will I make any future attempts to as well). For instance, will REMAIN areas revolt and elect parties that supported LEAVE? Will LEAVE areas punish those who called for a REMAIN vote? Will rock solid Conservative areas fall to the Liberal Democrats? Will UKIP gain seats from Labour as if there was no tomorrow? Will the SNP dominate Scotland to such an extent that everyone else gives up? Who knows? The main thing is that I don’t (and if anyone tells you otherwise, in the words of Public Enemy “Don’t believe the hype!”)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield