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If Corbyn’s future was decided by those who voted for the party at GE2015 his prospects would look grim

July 23rd, 2016

Members may take different view but to LAB general election voters he’s a dead man walking

Corbyn’s battle to hang onto his job, as we all know, will be decided by party members and others who’ve managed to become part of the “selectorate” for this crucial election.

What member polling there’s been suggests that he’s doing OK and has a clear lead over the contender, Owen Smith. The YouGov survey took place before Angela Eagle withdrew from the race and before 180k people signed up to vote on the £25 scheme.

It is also true to say that Owen Smith, an MP since only 2010, is relatively unknown and has a very low level of recognition amongst the general public and to a less extent those who will vote. That will change over the next seven or eight weeks but looking at the numbers we have Smith appears to have a big challenge on his hand. Corbyn loyalists are great enthusiasts and are desperately keen for their guy to continue.

But Corbyn’s backing is from the selectorate which is not representative of those who cote fore the party.

The pie chart shows the breakdown of 2015 LAB voters when asked if they were “satisfied or dissatisfied with way Corbyn is doing as LAB leader?”. That fewer than two in five of those who supported EdM’s party were ready to give him a positive rating speaks volumes. These are not the own party ratings of a man who is going to win a general election.

I’ve now come to the view that at 17/18% Smith is the value bet.

Mike Smithson