Archive for July, 2016


Harry Hayfield’s local elections report: What’s happened so far this week & tonight’s preview

Thursday, July 28th, 2016

Two good performances already for the Lib Dems

RESULT July 26
The Hangers and Forest (Con defence) on East Hampshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 42, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 40)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 983 (69%), Independent 257 (18%), Labour 184 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 37,346 (51%) LEAVE 36,576 (49%) on a turnout of 82%
Candidates duly nominated: Keith Budden (Con), Don Jerrard (Justice and Anti Corruption), Roger Mullenger (Lib Dem), Neil Ownsett (Lab)
Result: Conservative 236 (45% -24%), Liberal Democrat 227 (44%, no candidate in 2015), Justice and Anti Corruption 41 (8%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 17 (3% -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 9 (1%) on a notional swing of 34% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

RESULT July 27
Totnes (Lab defence) R on South Hams
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Green Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 19)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Green Party 2,215 E, 1,839 E (33%)
Labour 1,265 E, 1,111, 928 (19%)
Liberal Democrats 1,150 (17%)
Conservative 1,137, 815, 754 (17%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 693 (10%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 349 (5%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 29,308 (53%) LEAVE 26,142 (47%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Barrand (Con), John Birch (Lib Dem), Alex Mockridge (Ind), Alan White (Green)
Result: Liberal Democrat 812 (44% +27%), Green Party 499 (27% -6%), Independent 391 (21%, no candidate at last election), Conservative 137 (7% -10%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 313 (17%) on a notional swing of 23% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

July 28th
Newlyn and Goonhavern (Con defence) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 555 (46%), Mebyon Kernow 529 (44%), Labour 118 (10%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 140,540 (43%) LEAVE 182,665 (57%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Charlesworth (Con), Vicky Crowther (Lab), Rob Thomas (Ind), Rod Toms (Mebyon Kernow), James Tucker (Ind), Maggie Vale (Lib Dem), Kenneth Yeo (Ind)

Harringay (Lab defence) on Haringey
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 48, Liberal Democrats 9 (Labour majority of 39)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,683, 1,395, 1,372 (43%)
Liberal Democrats 1,182, 1,139, 878 (30%)
Green Party 657, 572, 558 (17%)
Conservatives 219, 212, 200 (6%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 219, 165, 132 (6%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 79,991 (76%) LEAVE 25,855 (24%) on a turnout of 71%
Candidates duly nominated: Karen Alexander (Lib Dem), Zena Brabazon (Lab), Cansoy Elmaz (Con), Jarelle Francis (Green), Neville Watson (UKIP)

St Julian’s (Lib Dem defence) on Newport
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 37, Conservatives 10, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 24)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,020, 981, 957 (46%)
Liberal Democrats 958, 873, 863 (42%)
Conservatives 299, 266, 243 (13%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,413 (44%) LEAVE 41,236 (56%) on a turnout of 70%
Candidates duly nominated: Carol Bader (Con), Andrew Byers (UKIP), Phil Hourahine (Lab), Chris Priest (Plaid), Carmel Townsend (Lib Dem), Mirka Virtanen (Green)

Carshalton Central (Lib Dem defence) on Sutton
Result of council at last election (2014): Liberal Democrats 45, Conservatives 9 (Liberal Democrat majority of 36)
Result of ward at last election (2014) : Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,634, 1,469, 1,460 (38%)
Conservatives 1,077, 989, 974 (25%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 671 (16%)
Labour 393, 384, 351 (9%)
Green Party 324, 309, 205 (8%)
Christian People’s Alliance 90 (2%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 74 (2%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 49,319 (46%) LEAVE 57,241 (54%) on a turnout of 76%
Candidates duly nominated: Ashley Dickenson (Christian Peoples Alliance), Sarah Gwynn (Lab), Ross Hemingway (Green), Bill Main-Ian (UKIP), Melissa Pearce (Con), Chris Williams (Lib Dem)

Droitwich West (Con defence) on Wychavon
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 39, Liberal Democrats 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,587, 1,201 (44%)
Labour 775 (21%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 724 (20%)
Liberal Democrat 534 (15%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 32,188 (42%) LEAVE 44,201 (58%) on a turnout of 81%
Candidates duly nominated: George Duffy (Con), Alan Humphries (Lab), Adrian Key (Lib Dem), Andy Morgan (UKIP)


Corbyn remains on the ballot and doesn’t require nominations as Labour donor loses court case

Thursday, July 28th, 2016



US election round-up following Obama’s convention speech and Trump’s call to Russia

Thursday, July 28th, 2016


The summer of political turmoil continues: A look back and look forward in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Thursday, July 28th, 2016


On the agenda for Keiran Pedley this week:-

  • Should May call an early general election?
  • Corbyn’s battle to hang onto his job
  • Have the Tories become the long-term opposition the to the SNP in Scotland?
  • Can Trump beat Clinton
  • Keiran is joined by two specialist political pollsters: Katy Owen, formerly a Senior Project Manager at Survation and now Programme Manager at Common Vision and Adam Drummond, Head of Political Polling at Opinium.

    You can follow Adam on twitter at @AGKD123 and Katy at @KatyCHOwen.


    Trump becomes the first main party nominee in more than 40 years to refuse to release his tax returns

    Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

    Even Richard Nixon released his

    Releasing tax returns has become very much part of politics in recent times and has been a well established practice in the US since Watergate.

    Generally they are issued at a time of the candidate’s choosing and become an issue for a day or so before the media moves on to something else. In 2012 Mitt Romney eventually produced a full set going back several years after a prolonged media clamour.

    Today a spokesman for Trump said that he wouldn’t be doing this because they “were still under audit”. Apparently Richard Nixon’s were “under audit” in 1972 and he still released them.

    All this will do is cause speculation to mount as to why not. One theory is that it will highlight his alleged Russian links. Another theory is that it they will show that he is not the multi-billionaire that he makes out to be.

    Who knows? But this is a big negative and will take the sting out of the “crooked Clinton” narrative that he’s been trying to develop.

    Mike Smithson


    Labour’s massive challenge: Support for Corbyn as “best PM” is inversely proportional to people’s likelihood to vote

    Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

    There’s a new YouGov voting poll out which has the Tories extending their lead to 12%. The figures are:

    CON 40%
    LAB 28%
    LD 8%
    UKIP 13%

    This means that the Tories have double digit leads in four of the five polls since Theresa May became PM. Clearly she is enjoying a honeymoon bounce but, on top of that, she is facing a Labour party that appears to be at war with itself.

    One part of the poll that show the massive challenge facing a Corbyn-led main opposition party – the “best PM” ratings. Across the board that runs 52% to May and 18% to Corbyn. But it is the age splits that I find most interesting and which feature in my chart above.

    As can be seen those voters of Corbyn’s age group are the least likely to rate him. Conversely the youngest is the only one where he has a lead. Only trouble is we all know is that the older you are the more likely it is that you will vote in elections.

    Mike Smithson


    The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

    Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

    And Bernie Sanders played his part

    Congratulations to Betfair and the other bookies who have been quick to settle long-standing US WH2016 bets as events have unfolded at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. It’s now official – Clinton versus Trump.

    Given the continuing disquiet amongst some of his followers in the hall the 74 year old socialist from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, played his part in the evening’s choreography. Vermont passed when it was invited to record its votes. Then at the end Sanders was able to make a short speech that many in the party are hoping will be a healing moment.

    There’s little doubt that it will be a rough road ahead but party officials hope that the prospect of President Trump will act as a huge unifying force and turnout driver.

    In the betting Clinton is down to a 67% chance on Betfair which compares to a high of 75.5% on June 23rd.

    Just like the Republicans getting behind Trump the same’s likely to happen with Clinton.

    Mike Smithson


    Today’s 2nd terrible poll for Corbyn: YouGov ratings from its latest Scotland survey

    Tuesday, July 26th, 2016

    Just 19% of Scots LAB GE2015 voters say Corbyn doing well, 66% badly

    Remember in those by-gone days in September 2015 when Mr. Corbyn pulled off his sensational leadership victory? Remember what he said would be his biggest initial priority? That was going to be Scotland where five months earlier Labour had slumped from 40 seats in the general election to just one – the same as the LD and CON.

    This was absolutely awful for the party and raised serious doubts over whether at Westminster they could ever be a party of government again. Corbyn, quite rightly I’d suggest, said Scotland would be a major early priority.

    Well LAB got hammered in the May 2016 Holyrood elections and now we have a YouGov Scotland poll which focuses almost entirety on leader ratings.

    There are some reasonable numbers for Sturgeon, May and Ruth Davidson but the finding over the UK LAB leader, Mr. Corbyn are appalling, particularly amongst those who voted for the party at GE2015.

    I don’t recall ever seeing as bad ratings figures for a party leader from party supporters.

    All this will add to the pressure as he strives to hold onto his job.

    Mike Smithson