Browsed by
Month: September 2016

Joff Wild says the key to a Labour moderate fightback is understanding the Corbyn tribes

Joff Wild says the key to a Labour moderate fightback is understanding the Corbyn tribes

Just because you know something bad is going to happen does not make it less painful when it does. Since the day that the Labour leadership contest was announced I had been pretty sure that Jeremy Corbyn would win again. I knew with absolute certainty that it would be so one Sunday in late August when I went – nervous, but excited – to an Owen Smith phone bank in the upstairs room of a pub around the corner from…

Read More Read More

The betting market that reflects the mess Labour finds itself in

The betting market that reflects the mess Labour finds itself in

2031 onwards is the favourite for when Labour will next form a majority government. Sometimes a betting market beautifully captures the political zeitgeist, and this market from William Hill eloquently expresses Labour’s current predicament with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, it’s not so much Labour are up a certain creek without a paddle, Labour are up that creek sans a canoe too. If I were forced to choose, I’d go for the 2031 onwards option, but I’m loathe to place bets for time periods…

Read More Read More

Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate

Anticipating Corbyn’s second mandate

History repeats itself: the first time as farce, the second as – who knows? Albert Einstein said that time travel into the past is impossible. He was, however, only talking physically. Politics does not necessarily obey the same laws; a fact he recognised when he turned down the presidency of Israel due people needing to be treated differently from ‘objective matters’. Later today Labour will attempt to prove that those universal physical laws don’t apply by trying to turn the…

Read More Read More

Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight

Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight

Clinton recovering a bit in latest national polls but this battle is still very tight.On Monday it's the 1st debate pic.twitter.com/7AXiPfEwOE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Latest Betfair Exchange WH2016 prices pic.twitter.com/q6lUDmgcfJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Just three days to go before the first WH2016 debate This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in…

Read More Read More

Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

Dreadful set of local election results overnight sees CON lose 4 – their worst performance since TMay became leader

LAB gain 3 and the LDs 2 LD GAIN Hadleigh on Suffolk CC from CON. The 3rd LD gain this week and 4th CON loss of night — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2016 Labour GAIN Arley & Whitacre (North Warwickshire) from Conservative. — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 22, 2016 Teignmouth Central (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 51.1% (+28.3)CON: 29.8% (-12.6)UKIP: 11.6% (+11.6)LAB: 7.5% (-8.7) — Britain Elects (@britainelects) September 22, 2016 Christchurch (Allerdale) result:LAB: 40.7% (+5.8)LDEM: 29.4% (+20.0)CON: 25.9% (-19.3)UKIP: 4.0% (+4.0)…

Read More Read More