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If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

October 30th, 2016

One of the reasons I like betting on US Presidential races is that there’s an awful lot of data made available before election day that allows you to see how people have voted that simply isn’t available in UK elections because of electoral law. This info helps influence my betting, so I like this from Ipsos and Reuters asking early voters how they have voted.

With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

Though data is not available for all early voting states, Clinton enjoys an edge in swing states such as Ohio and Arizona and in Republican Party strongholds such as Georgia and Texas.

An estimated 19 million Americans have voted so far in the election, according to the University of Florida’s United States Election Project, accounting for as much as 20 percent of the electorate.

Overall, Clinton remained on track to win a majority of votes in the Electoral College, the Reuters/Ipsos survey showed.

Having so many ballots locked down before the Nov. 8 election is good news for the Clinton campaign. On Friday, the Federal Bureau of Investigation announced that it is examining newly discovered emails belonging to Clinton’s close aide, Huma Abedin. Those emails were found on a computer belonging to Anthony Weiner, Abedin’s estranged husband, during an unrelated investigation into illicit messages he is alleged to have sent to a teenage girl. The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted before the news emerged Friday afternoon…….

….Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time. Obama won the election by 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206.

What would have been even more useful if there were comparisons to 2012. But if the on the day voting is anything like this then we could see a Hillary Clinton landslide, but in a close election this substantial early vote lead might be crucial in a tight race.

As noted this was conducted before the FBI intervention on Friday, where not for the first time, a Weiner has the potential to imperil a Clinton Presidency, hopefully we’ll see more analysis like this in the run up to November 8th.

TSE