One day to go and Betfair makes Hillary an 83% chance but the markets could be over-reacting

November 7th, 2016


Why I’ve now taken my Clinton spread betting profits

There’s a rule in betting generally that markets have a tendency to over-react to big news. With the White House race we saw Trump price rise sharply to more than 30% when the initial FBI announcement came about opening up the email case a week and a half ago.

Overnight we’ve seen the opposite with Trump moving back to the 16-17% range on Betfair as an instant reaction to the no prosecution for Clinton statement.

Both moves, I’d suggest,overstated the impact that the developments would have.

My main betting WH2016 platform has been the Sporting Index Electoral College Votes spread market. In the aftermath of Comey’s first statement Hillary’s BUY price dropped to 295 ECVs. The latest buy level is 324.

I had been on Hillary at 302 and overnight I cashed out at the current selling price of 314 – so a profit of twelve times my stake level which is a very nice bonus.

These are always hard decisions as punter. Do you take your profits with the downside of, maybe, the amount you get now being considerably less than if you had remained? But being certain of the cash in your pocket now is very attractive. We’ll see.

Mike Smithson