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Pre-Christmas voodoo surveys might have had a big move against BREXIT but that’s not been picked in proper polls

December 26th, 2016

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Express & Star Dec 24 2016

The YouGov view of BREXIT tracker

yg-brexit-tracker

There was a flurry of activity just before Christmas prompted by the publication in the Wolverhampton & Shropshire Express and Star of the “poll” at the top contrasting views on BREXIT now with a similar “poll” carried out in the same manner in March last year. As can be seen it shows a dramatic change in opinion. There are said to have been three other local newspaper polls which have had the same pattern.

    But the problem with these surveys is that they are not and do not seek to be representative of opinion. Anybody can participate online and it does not take a computer genius to find ways of multi-voting.

Thus what we could be seeing is that those feeling most strongly about an issue tend to predominate. So maybe the anti-EU Express and Start readers were most motivated last March – now it is those that don’t want BREXIT.

The most regular proper polling tracker of BREXIT opinion is that from YouGov which features above. As can be seen the numbers haven’t changed very much since the polling started on August 1st. The public is very split and there has been little movement.

The last YouGov polling on this to be published had a fieldwork date of December 4th – so is three weeks old. If there has been any change since then we’ll see in the next YouGov poll most probably in the New Year.

Mike Smithson