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Month: December 2016

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

Betting on Labour polling under 20% at the next general election

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Ladbrokes’ odds imply it is a 9% chance that Labour poll below 20% at the next general election, with Corbyn leading Labour I think the chances are higher Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote at the next general election, which could be less than a couple of months away according to press reports this morning. I think the value is backing sub 20% and here’s why (short answer = Jeremy Corbyn.) The YouGov poll earlier…

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Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

Betting on will Boris Johnson still be Foreign Secretary of the 1st of January 2018

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Boris Johnson’s desire to be Prime Minister is why he will stay & try to make a success of being Foreign Secretary while Mrs May cannot sack him without causing problems for herself. William Hill have a market up on whether Boris Johnson will still be Foreign Secretary on the 1st of January 2018. I think despite the events of the summer when Michael Gove’s transformation into the lovechild of Frank Underwood and Niccolò Machiavelli fatally damaged Boris Johnson’s chances…

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The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

The final PB/Polling Matters Podcast of 2016: Looking back at an incredible and unpredictable political year

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On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters show Keiran Rob and Leo look back at 2016 and discuss the results from the recent survey of PB/Polling Matters listeners where more than 600 people took part. We discuss what our biggest shock of 2016 was, who the biggest winners and losers were and our defining moments of 2016. We also take some time to read out some comments from listeners and mull over what 2017 might bring. Follow the team…

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Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

Can Labour really sleepwalk another 3 and a half years into disaster?

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Their position continues to get worse, gradually Lincolnshire has a habit of producing earthquakes. One in 1185 was powerful enough to badly damage Lincoln Cathedral. A more recent example, centred near Market Rasen at about 1am on 27 Feb 2008, was strong enough to wake people across large parts of the North and Midlands. To go by the reporting, the Sleaford & North Hykeham by-election didn’t generate similar tremors. The reporting is wrong; politics’ tectonic plates continue to move. The…

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After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

After the advocacy, what next for the Article 50 case in the Supreme Court?

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Picture credit: Twitter Alastair Meeks: current odds on the Government winning are value 2016 has had many twists and turns, but from a lawyer’s viewpoint one of the treats has been the unfolding of the Article 50 case.  We have been given the opportunity to observe perhaps the most important case in constitutional law for nearly 200 years. Let’s set to one side the disgraceful behaviour of the press and some extremist politicians in seeking to bludgeon the judiciary into…

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YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

YouGov adds to Labour woes with the worst poll since 2009

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Half of GE2015 LAB voters now abandoned the party And barely a third of GE2015 LAB voters rate Corbyn as best PM Given that it is barely three months since Corbyn was re-elected with a huge majority it is hard to see what the party can do. They are stuck with a leader who appears to repel voters and with him in place there appears no obvious way back. This is a story that will just go on with lucky…

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Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016

Westminster and Local By-Election Preview : December 8th 2016

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Sleaford and North Hykeham (Con defence) to Westminster Parliament Result of Parliament at last election (2015): Conservatives 331, Labour 232, Scottish National Party 56, Northern Ireland Parties 18, Liberal Democrats 8, Plaid Cymru 3, Green Party 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 12) Result of constituency at last election (2015): Conservative 34,805 (56%), Labour 10,690 (17%), United Kingdom Independence Party 9,716 (16%), Liberal Democrat 3,500 (6%), Lincolnshire Independent 3,233 (5%) EU Referendum Result (North and South Kesteven…

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