Why I’m taking the 20/1 on Farage being UKIP leader at the end of 2017
Betway have some specials up on what will happen to UKIP in 2017, the one that caught my attention was Nigel Farage to end 2017 as UKIP leader at 20/1, much like a persistent rash, Nigel Farage regularly returns as the next UKIP leader. Ladbrokes make it 3/1 that Nigel Farage will be the next UKIP leader, so by my reckoning the 20/1 on Farage to end 2017 as UKIP leader is value and here’s why.
2017 will be the year Mrs May will have to explain what Brexit actually means and I suspect whatever she proposes it will not satisfy Nigel Farage and the more passionate leavers and that might help UKIP find a role (and votes) in the post Brexit world, but is Paul Nuttal the man best to exploit that? I have my doubts, especially if Doctor Nuttal performs poorly in the by election in the Leave supporting constituency of Leigh.
Intriguingly there is the belief among many Tories that charges are inevitable relating to Thanet South, and a successful prosecution would lead to a by election. In the past governments have lost by elections in seats with majorities even larger than the majority in Thanet South, I can see Farage standing in the resulting by election and winning, that would give UKIP their first MP that wasn’t a defector-incumbent.
Whatever you think of Farage, he is undoubtedly political box office, especially if he retains his close links with President-Elect Donald Trump, coupled with him finally becoming an MP, it would make sense for Farage to regain the UKIP leadership, especially with no European Parliament elections in 2019 for UKIP to win to cement their status as a major party in a general election.
The odds imply that it is less than a 5% chance that Farage ends 2017 as UKIP leader, for the reasons above, my view is that the chances are higher, if you agree, take the 20/1.