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Macron at 6/1 looks the value bet for next French president

January 8th, 2017

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By far the biggest political betting market at the moment is on the French presidential election the first round of which takes place in April. On the Betfair exchange alone £2m has been matched which suggests that this will be a huge market when we get to polling day.

All the focus has on the far right contender, Marine Le Pen, who at about 23% is currently the second favourite behind Francois Fillon, the Republican nominee, who is rated on the markets at about 54%.

The incumbent is not re-standing and the Socialists are going through their nomination process at the moment.

The big mover is the 39 year old telegenic independent, Emmanuel Macron, who is positioning himself to get centre ground votes and some left wing support as well. He needs a large slab of the latter in the first round of voting in order to make the final two. If he gets to the final round when the top two slug it out he could be in with a chance against Fillon.

What could help him is a move to back a round one contender who could stop Le Pen from making the run-off.

The polls have been closing and his current 6/1 price looks reasonable value.

Mike Smithson