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Betting on whether or not we’ll have another EU referendum before 2019

January 29th, 2017

Paddy Power have a market up on whether we’ll have a referendum on a UK-wide referendum on in/out EU membership or on acceptance of new membership terms. Must offer option of membership terms. I’m backing the No side of this bet.

I just cannot see Theresa May realistically offering a referendum on these terms, unless she was interested in her tenure as PM rivalling Neville Chamberlain’s or Alec Douglas-Home’s tenure for brevity.

The more realistic way I can see a second referendum on these terms is if Mrs May calls an early election on Brexit if Parliament delays Brexit and she manages to loses to a party or parties who promise a second referendum, but you can get better odds on an early election (such as 10/1 on a 2018 general election or the 9/2 or 33/1 on Labour or the Lib Dems winning the most seats.)

But backing the 1/5 seems the better option to me, we’re leaving the EU, we might rejoin the EU in the future, but the wishes of the electorate as expressed on June 23rd need to be honoured and delivered upon and the polling indicates even those that voted Remain wish to see the vote honoured, so there’s no real net vote gain in offering a second referendum.

With interest rates at 0.25% and the best interest rate on saving/current accounts around 3%, a 20% return in less than two years seems like a good deal.

TSE