So here we are. The Article 50 bill starts in the Commons with Mr. Corbyn ordering his MPs to back the Tories – something that is going to be remembered.
The dilemma was obvious – the majority of LAB voters voted REMAIN but the majority of LAB MPs are in areas that voted LEAVE. This is only problematical if there’s evidence that it would lead to voters switching on the issue and there isn’t.
It is also based on the fallacy that in local and national election those turning out would split precisely in accordance with the way their area voted.
Another factor that undermines the strategy is that the Lib Dem revival in local elections that we are seeing is more marked in areas that voted LEAVE than voted REMAIN.
So you can’t simply apply the template of the referendum to other elections.
Remember this from earlier in the month – what happened in LEAVE friendly Sunderland.
LD: 45.0% (+41.5)
LAB: 25.0% (-29.9)
UKIP: 18.7% (-7.2)
CON: 10.0% (-5.7)
GRN: 1.3% (+1.3)
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2017