This is scary. When asked by YouGov US 15% of Trump voters responded that pic on the left had more people in it.https://t.co/2gq3dUkl9w pic.twitter.com/uTtII50SGw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 Tweet
The numbers caused LAB to focus on the DPM when they could have been saving Balls There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how difficult single seat polling is and I was reminded on Twitter this morning of the polling at GE2015 of Sheffield Hallam. The numbers are above. Five consecutive polls had LAB ahead. As can be seen there was a pretty consistent picture that the then DPM,, who still arouses excitement amongst red tribalists, was in trouble…
How the Express is reporting the Stoke central "poll" which wasn't. I'm told it was Facebook survey of 179 people pic.twitter.com/pVlmrSXTu5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 A big move in the betting overnight to UKIP in the Stoke central by-election following reports what was described as a poll. It wasn't. pic.twitter.com/HUHxWp9LL2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2017 Note that polls can only be described as valid if they aim to have a representative sample of relevant voters….
The odds on favourite for French Presidency could be in trouble following news of scandal https://t.co/Xts5nSR4mk pic.twitter.com/RLhLocFuca — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017 Fillon no longer odds-on Francois Fillon no longer odds-favourite for next French President following tonight financial allegations pic.twitter.com/3AVwkyrKar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017 Tweet
Why my money’s NOT going on Paul Nuttall Over the past week there’s been a rush to bet on UKIP in the Stoke Central by-election. This has gathered apace and now the best you can get is about 11/8. This has been driven by the demographics of the seat, the way it went so strongly for LEAVE at the referendum, and the fact that the leader of UKIP has decided to be the candidate. I’m not convinced and think that…
So now TMay will have to get a bill through the commons & Lord to trigger Article 50https://t.co/viGKHORRZm pic.twitter.com/EVq1lWLfsE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017 Today's a big defeat for Theresa May who'll now have to be more accountable to parliament in shaping BREXIT. Appeal to SC just wasted time — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2017
Theresa May’s position currently looks unassailable. Her speech last week was very well received by the public and her opinion poll leads are overwhelming. For now, her honeymoon with voters shows few signs of abating and she stands dominant over the British political scene. But will it last? The times in which there is the greatest consensus about the political future is often the best time to look for betting value. And the course that has to be navigated between…
Labour’s Don Brind says the LD leader has a soft spot for the PM. The Lib Dem leader told Politics Home “In a really peculiar way I felt slightly proud of her when she became prime minister.” A very odd thing to say, isn’t it? Since you’re asking, Tim – Yes it is a bit odd. Not only is she a Tory. She is the Remainer who failed to campaign in the EU referendum and now, with all the zeal…