Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park
But remember December’s Richmond Park betting
Like BREXIT, Trump and Richmond Park the betting could be pointing us in the wrong direction
It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope.
In fact looking at Richmond Park on Betfair 2 days beforehand the price of the eventual winner was even longer than Trump or Leave.
At least with the White House Race and the referendum we had some polls to guide us. In the coming by elections at Copeland and Stoke central that has been nothing apart from a weird LEAVE EU “survey” with an alleged sample of 4k.
We all got used to that period up to the 2015 General Election when at every by election there was some polling. For a week on Thursday not so.
Given the Conservatives hold double digit polling leads almost across the board and Theresa May totally dominates Jeremy Corbyn in the personal ratings it is the market view that this will apply in Copeland. Maybe that will be right or not. We simply don’t know.