Why I’m betting that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader out

February 22nd, 2017

Next leader to leave – William Hill
6/4 Nuttall (In from 9/4)
6/4 Corbyn
5/1 May
8/1 Sturgeon
12/1 Farron

At the weekend I had a bet at 9/4 with William Hill that Paul Nuttall will be the next party leader to exit his post. That’s since tightened to 6/4 which still looks a good punt.

Clearly amongst the other options Corbyn is most at risk but as we’ve seen he is a stubborn old man and the party rules make it very difficult to unseat him. Taking the overnight council by-election from CON on a big swing adds a touch to his position. Losing both Copeland and Stoke Central would increase the pressure but it’s going to take an enormous amount to shift him. I’m of the view that two LAB holds tomorrow would make it easier for him to stand aside.

It’s very hard to see about Nuttall continuing to head UKIP after what’s emerged in the last 4 weeks even if he should by some chance win tomorrow’s Stoke central by-election.

The Hillsborough aftermath, featured prominently yesterday in the Liverpool Echo (above), has been extraordinarily difficult for him to deal with. Add on top of that other issues relating to what was on his website and, of course, the question of the address used on his nomination form and my reckoning is that he’ll leave the leader’s job before Corbyn exit from LAB

William Hill is also offering 5/4 that he will no longer be UKIP leader at the end of 2017 which seems a value bet as well.

Mike Smithson